Development and application of a tsunami fragility curve of the 2015 tsunami in Coquimbo, Chile
<p>The last earthquake that affected the city of Coquimbo took place in September 2015 and had a magnitude of <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 8.3, resulting in localized damage in low-lying areas of the city. In addition, another seismic gap north of the 2015 earthquake ruptu...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-08-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/18/2143/2018/nhess-18-2143-2018.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>The last earthquake that affected the city of Coquimbo took
place in September 2015 and had a magnitude of <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 8.3, resulting in localized
damage in low-lying areas of the city. In addition, another seismic gap north
of the 2015 earthquake rupture area has been identified; therefore, a
significant earthquake (<i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 8.2 to 8.5) and tsunami could occur in the near
future. The present paper develops a tsunami fragility curve for the city
of Coquimbo based on field survey data and tsunami numerical simulations. The
inundation depth of the 2015 Chile tsunami in Coquimbo was estimated by means
of numerical simulation with the Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) model and five nested grids with a
maximum grid resolution of 10 m. The fragility curve exhibited behavior
similar to that of other curves in flat areas in Japan, where little damage
was observed at relatively high inundation depths. In addition, it was
observed that Coquimbo experienced less damage than Dichato (Chile); in fact,
at an inundation depth of 2 m, Dichato had a ∼ 75 %
probability of damage, while Coquimbo proved to have only a 20 %
probability. The new fragility curve was used to estimate the damage by
possible future tsunamis in the area. The damage assessment showed that
∼ 50 % of the structures in the low-lying area of Coquimbo
have a high probability of damage in the case of a tsunami generated off the
coast of the study area if the city is rebuilt with the same types of structures.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |