Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics.
Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its...
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2013-03-01
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doaj-c3aa14e3c2484e869fbb338989cf5a3a2020-11-25T01:34:03ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Pathogens1553-73661553-73742013-03-0193e100320910.1371/journal.ppat.1003209Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics.Thomas W BerngruberRémy FroissartMarc ChoisySylvain GandonTheory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent λcI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemic, but loses competition with the latent virus as prevalence increases. We show that the observed transient selection for virulence and horizontal transmission can be fully explained within the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory. This experimental validation of our predictions is a key step towards a predictive theory for the evolution of virulence in emerging infectious diseases.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3597519?pdf=render |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Thomas W Berngruber Rémy Froissart Marc Choisy Sylvain Gandon |
spellingShingle |
Thomas W Berngruber Rémy Froissart Marc Choisy Sylvain Gandon Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics. PLoS Pathogens |
author_facet |
Thomas W Berngruber Rémy Froissart Marc Choisy Sylvain Gandon |
author_sort |
Thomas W Berngruber |
title |
Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics. |
title_short |
Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics. |
title_full |
Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics. |
title_fullStr |
Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics. |
title_sort |
evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
series |
PLoS Pathogens |
issn |
1553-7366 1553-7374 |
publishDate |
2013-03-01 |
description |
Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent λcI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemic, but loses competition with the latent virus as prevalence increases. We show that the observed transient selection for virulence and horizontal transmission can be fully explained within the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory. This experimental validation of our predictions is a key step towards a predictive theory for the evolution of virulence in emerging infectious diseases. |
url |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3597519?pdf=render |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT thomaswberngruber evolutionofvirulenceinemergingepidemics AT remyfroissart evolutionofvirulenceinemergingepidemics AT marcchoisy evolutionofvirulenceinemergingepidemics AT sylvaingandon evolutionofvirulenceinemergingepidemics |
_version_ |
1725074070594125824 |