THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
In the present study, we aim to investigate how seasonality influences the climate changes on the outdoor thermal comfort for traveling to visit Bangladesh. Wherein, the effect of temperature on tourist arrival is assessed using SANCOVA and SARIMA model at seven attractive sightseeing diverse place...
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Editura Universităţii din Oradea
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doaj-c470c22e85e443a4b5a293eee949f2962021-04-28T10:13:12ZengEditura Universităţii din OradeaGeo Journal of Tourism and Geosites2065-08172021-01-01341202710.30892/gtg.34103-614THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCESayed Mohibul HOSSEN0Mohd Tahir ISMAIL1Mosab I. TABASH2Universiti Sains Malaysia, School of Mathematical Science, 11800 USM Penang Malaysia, Mawlana Bashani Science and Technology University, Department of Statistics, Tangail 1902, Bangladesh, e-mail: m300cht@gmail.comUniversiti Sains Malaysia, School of Mathematical Science, 11800 USM Penang, Malaysia, e-mail: m.tahir@usm.myAl Ain University, College of Business, P.O. Box: 64141 Al Ain, United Arab Emirates, e-mail: mosab.tabash@aau.ac.aeIn the present study, we aim to investigate how seasonality influences the climate changes on the outdoor thermal comfort for traveling to visit Bangladesh. Wherein, the effect of temperature on tourist arrival is assessed using SANCOVA and SARIMA model at seven attractive sightseeing diverse places in Bangladesh. The highest temperature has appeared in Khulna and Rajshahi with 35.53 °C and 35.85 °C and the lowest temperature was appeared in Rajshahi and Rangamati with 10.40 °C and 11.72 °C, respectively. This result also revealed that the temperature for Dhaka, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Khulna, and Sylhet has extreme values of decreasing, in Dhaka the temperature will be 25.140 °C on January 2023, in Chittagong 260 °C on January 2027, Cox’s Bazar 26.490 °C on January 2030, in Khulna 25.610 °C on January 2023, and in Sylhet 26.560 °C on January 2020. Our findings also indicate that the tourism industry of Bangladesh is more vulnerable to seasonal variation and this seasonality has a 74% effect on tourist’s arrival as well as a 98% effect on overall temperature in Bangladesh.http://gtg.webhost.uoradea.ro/PDF/GTG-1-2021/gtg.34103-614.pdfseasonalitytemperaturemodelingforecastingsancova modelsarima model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Sayed Mohibul HOSSEN Mohd Tahir ISMAIL Mosab I. TABASH |
spellingShingle |
Sayed Mohibul HOSSEN Mohd Tahir ISMAIL Mosab I. TABASH THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE Geo Journal of Tourism and Geosites seasonality temperature modeling forecasting sancova model sarima model |
author_facet |
Sayed Mohibul HOSSEN Mohd Tahir ISMAIL Mosab I. TABASH |
author_sort |
Sayed Mohibul HOSSEN |
title |
THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE |
title_short |
THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE |
title_full |
THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE |
title_fullStr |
THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE |
title_full_unstemmed |
THE IMPACT OF SEASONALITY IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE |
title_sort |
impact of seasonality in temperature forecast on tourist arrivals in bangladesh: an empirical evidence |
publisher |
Editura Universităţii din Oradea |
series |
Geo Journal of Tourism and Geosites |
issn |
2065-0817 |
publishDate |
2021-01-01 |
description |
In the present study, we aim to investigate how seasonality influences the climate changes on the outdoor thermal comfort for traveling to visit Bangladesh. Wherein, the effect of temperature on tourist arrival is assessed using SANCOVA and SARIMA model at seven attractive
sightseeing diverse places in Bangladesh. The highest temperature has appeared in Khulna and Rajshahi with 35.53 °C and 35.85 °C and the lowest temperature was appeared in Rajshahi and Rangamati with 10.40 °C and 11.72 °C, respectively. This result also revealed that the temperature for Dhaka, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Khulna, and Sylhet has extreme values of decreasing, in Dhaka the temperature will be 25.140 °C on January 2023, in Chittagong 260 °C on January 2027, Cox’s Bazar 26.490 °C on January 2030, in Khulna 25.610 °C on January 2023, and in Sylhet 26.560 °C on January 2020. Our findings also indicate that the tourism industry of Bangladesh is more vulnerable to seasonal variation and this seasonality has a 74% effect on tourist’s arrival as well as a 98% effect on overall temperature in Bangladesh. |
topic |
seasonality temperature modeling forecasting sancova model sarima model |
url |
http://gtg.webhost.uoradea.ro/PDF/GTG-1-2021/gtg.34103-614.pdf |
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