The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE Project
The aim of this study is to investigate the 14-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and develop a risk score for T2DM in the Siberian cohort. A random population sample (males/females, 45–69 years old) was examined at baseline in 2003–2005 (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial Factors in Easter...
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doaj-c4d7abd9572c4b7e987f4daeafc778cb2021-02-12T00:02:53ZengMDPI AGJournal of Personalized Medicine2075-44262021-02-011111911910.3390/jpm11020119The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE ProjectSvetlana V. Mustafina0Oksana D. Rymar1Liliya V. Shcherbakova2Evgeniy G. Verevkin3Hynek Pikhart4Olga V. Sazonova5Yuliya I. Ragino6Galina I. Simonova7Martin Bobak8Sofia K. Malyutina9Mikhail I. Voevoda10Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine–Branch of Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 630089 Novosibirsk, RussiaInstitute of Internal and Preventive Medicine–Branch of Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 630089 Novosibirsk, RussiaInstitute of Internal and Preventive Medicine–Branch of Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 630089 Novosibirsk, RussiaInstitute of Internal and Preventive Medicine–Branch of Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 630089 Novosibirsk, RussiaInstitute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E6BT, UKNovosibirsk State Medical University, 630091 Novosibirsk, RussiaInstitute of Internal and Preventive Medicine–Branch of Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 630089 Novosibirsk, RussiaInstitute of Internal and Preventive Medicine–Branch of Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 630089 Novosibirsk, RussiaInstitute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E6BT, UKInstitute of Internal and Preventive Medicine–Branch of Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 630089 Novosibirsk, RussiaInstitute of Internal and Preventive Medicine–Branch of Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, 630089 Novosibirsk, RussiaThe aim of this study is to investigate the 14-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and develop a risk score for T2DM in the Siberian cohort. A random population sample (males/females, 45–69 years old) was examined at baseline in 2003–2005 (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) project, <i>n</i> = 9360, Novosibirsk) and re-examined in 2006–2008 and 2015–2017. After excluding those with baseline T2DM, the final analysis included 7739 participants. The risk of incident T2DM during a 14-year follow-up was analysed using Cox regression. In age-adjusted models, male and female hazard ratios (HR) of incident T2DM were 5.02 (95% CI 3.62; 6.96) and 5.13 (95% CI 3.56; 7.37) for BMI ≥ 25 kg/m<sup>2</sup>; 4.38 (3.37; 5.69) and 4.70 (0.27; 6.75) for abdominal obesity (AO); 3.31 (2.65; 4.14) and 3.61 (3.06; 4.27) for fasting hyperglycaemia (FHG); 2.34 (1.58; 3.49) and 3.27 (2.50; 4.26) for high triglyceride (TG); 2.25 (1.74; 2.91) and 2.82 (2.27; 3.49) for hypertension (HT); and 1.57 (1.14; 2.16) and 1.69 (1.38; 2.07) for family history of diabetes mellitus (DM). In addition, secondary education, low physical activity (PA), and history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were also significantly associated with T2DM in females. A simple T2DM risk calculator was generated based on non-laboratory parameters. A scale with the best quality included waist circumference >95 cm, HT history, and family history of T2DM (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71). The proposed 10-year risk score of T2DM represents a simple, non-invasive, and reliable tool for identifying individuals at a high risk of future T2DM.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/11/2/119diabetes mellitusrisk factordiabetes risk scalediabetes risk model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Svetlana V. Mustafina Oksana D. Rymar Liliya V. Shcherbakova Evgeniy G. Verevkin Hynek Pikhart Olga V. Sazonova Yuliya I. Ragino Galina I. Simonova Martin Bobak Sofia K. Malyutina Mikhail I. Voevoda |
spellingShingle |
Svetlana V. Mustafina Oksana D. Rymar Liliya V. Shcherbakova Evgeniy G. Verevkin Hynek Pikhart Olga V. Sazonova Yuliya I. Ragino Galina I. Simonova Martin Bobak Sofia K. Malyutina Mikhail I. Voevoda The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE Project Journal of Personalized Medicine diabetes mellitus risk factor diabetes risk scale diabetes risk model |
author_facet |
Svetlana V. Mustafina Oksana D. Rymar Liliya V. Shcherbakova Evgeniy G. Verevkin Hynek Pikhart Olga V. Sazonova Yuliya I. Ragino Galina I. Simonova Martin Bobak Sofia K. Malyutina Mikhail I. Voevoda |
author_sort |
Svetlana V. Mustafina |
title |
The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE Project |
title_short |
The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE Project |
title_full |
The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE Project |
title_fullStr |
The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE Project |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Russian Population Cohort According to Data from the HAPIEE Project |
title_sort |
risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a russian population cohort according to data from the hapiee project |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Journal of Personalized Medicine |
issn |
2075-4426 |
publishDate |
2021-02-01 |
description |
The aim of this study is to investigate the 14-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and develop a risk score for T2DM in the Siberian cohort. A random population sample (males/females, 45–69 years old) was examined at baseline in 2003–2005 (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) project, <i>n</i> = 9360, Novosibirsk) and re-examined in 2006–2008 and 2015–2017. After excluding those with baseline T2DM, the final analysis included 7739 participants. The risk of incident T2DM during a 14-year follow-up was analysed using Cox regression. In age-adjusted models, male and female hazard ratios (HR) of incident T2DM were 5.02 (95% CI 3.62; 6.96) and 5.13 (95% CI 3.56; 7.37) for BMI ≥ 25 kg/m<sup>2</sup>; 4.38 (3.37; 5.69) and 4.70 (0.27; 6.75) for abdominal obesity (AO); 3.31 (2.65; 4.14) and 3.61 (3.06; 4.27) for fasting hyperglycaemia (FHG); 2.34 (1.58; 3.49) and 3.27 (2.50; 4.26) for high triglyceride (TG); 2.25 (1.74; 2.91) and 2.82 (2.27; 3.49) for hypertension (HT); and 1.57 (1.14; 2.16) and 1.69 (1.38; 2.07) for family history of diabetes mellitus (DM). In addition, secondary education, low physical activity (PA), and history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were also significantly associated with T2DM in females. A simple T2DM risk calculator was generated based on non-laboratory parameters. A scale with the best quality included waist circumference >95 cm, HT history, and family history of T2DM (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71). The proposed 10-year risk score of T2DM represents a simple, non-invasive, and reliable tool for identifying individuals at a high risk of future T2DM. |
topic |
diabetes mellitus risk factor diabetes risk scale diabetes risk model |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/11/2/119 |
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