All-cause mortality supports the COVID-19 mortality in Belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last century
Abstract Background The COVID-19 mortality rate in Belgium has been ranked among the highest in the world. To assess the appropriateness of the country’s COVID-19 mortality surveillance, that includes long-term care facilities deaths and deaths in possible cases, the number of COVID-19 deaths was co...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
BMC
2020-11-01
|
Series: | Archives of Public Health |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13690-020-00496-x |
id |
doaj-c5094da5e40940f6b37828dacb461282 |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-c5094da5e40940f6b37828dacb4612822020-11-25T04:09:54ZengBMCArchives of Public Health2049-32582020-11-017811810.1186/s13690-020-00496-xAll-cause mortality supports the COVID-19 mortality in Belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last centuryNatalia Bustos Sierra0Nathalie Bossuyt1Toon Braeye2Mathias Leroy3Isabelle Moyersoen4Ilse Peeters5Aline Scohy6Johan Van der Heyden7Herman Van Oyen8Françoise Renard9Scientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthScientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthScientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthScientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthScientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthScientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthScientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthScientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthScientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthScientific Directorate of Epidemiology and public healthAbstract Background The COVID-19 mortality rate in Belgium has been ranked among the highest in the world. To assess the appropriateness of the country’s COVID-19 mortality surveillance, that includes long-term care facilities deaths and deaths in possible cases, the number of COVID-19 deaths was compared with the number of deaths from all-cause mortality. Mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic was also compared with historical mortality rates from the last century including those of the Spanish influenza pandemic. Methods Excess mortality predictions and COVID-19 mortality data were analysed for the period March 10th to June 21st 2020. The number of COVID-19 deaths and the COVID-19 mortality rate per million were calculated for hospitals, nursing homes and other places of death, according to diagnostic status (confirmed/possible infection). To evaluate historical mortality, monthly mortality rates were calculated from January 1900 to June 2020. Results Nine thousand five hundred ninety-one COVID-19 deaths and 39,076 deaths from all-causes were recorded, with a correlation of 94% (Spearman’s rho, p < 0,01). During the period with statistically significant excess mortality (March 20th to April 28th; total excess mortality 64.7%), 7917 excess deaths were observed among the 20,159 deaths from all-causes. In the same period, 7576 COVID-19 deaths were notified, indicating that 96% of the excess mortality were likely attributable to COVID-19. The inclusion of deaths in nursing homes doubled the COVID-19 mortality rate, while adding deaths in possible cases increased it by 27%. Deaths in laboratory-confirmed cases accounted for 69% of total COVID-19-related deaths and 43% of in-hospital deaths. Although the number of deaths was historically high, the monthly mortality rate was lower in April 2020 compared to the major fatal events of the last century. Conclusions Trends in all-cause mortality during the first wave of the epidemic was a key indicator to validate the Belgium’s high COVID-19 mortality figures. A COVID-19 mortality surveillance limited to deaths from hospitalised and selected laboratory-confirmed cases would have underestimated the magnitude of the epidemic. Excess mortality, daily and monthly number of deaths in Belgium were historically high classifying undeniably the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic as a fatal event.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13690-020-00496-xCOVID-19MortalityAll-cause mortalityExcess mortalityPandemic |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Natalia Bustos Sierra Nathalie Bossuyt Toon Braeye Mathias Leroy Isabelle Moyersoen Ilse Peeters Aline Scohy Johan Van der Heyden Herman Van Oyen Françoise Renard |
spellingShingle |
Natalia Bustos Sierra Nathalie Bossuyt Toon Braeye Mathias Leroy Isabelle Moyersoen Ilse Peeters Aline Scohy Johan Van der Heyden Herman Van Oyen Françoise Renard All-cause mortality supports the COVID-19 mortality in Belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last century Archives of Public Health COVID-19 Mortality All-cause mortality Excess mortality Pandemic |
author_facet |
Natalia Bustos Sierra Nathalie Bossuyt Toon Braeye Mathias Leroy Isabelle Moyersoen Ilse Peeters Aline Scohy Johan Van der Heyden Herman Van Oyen Françoise Renard |
author_sort |
Natalia Bustos Sierra |
title |
All-cause mortality supports the COVID-19 mortality in Belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last century |
title_short |
All-cause mortality supports the COVID-19 mortality in Belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last century |
title_full |
All-cause mortality supports the COVID-19 mortality in Belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last century |
title_fullStr |
All-cause mortality supports the COVID-19 mortality in Belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last century |
title_full_unstemmed |
All-cause mortality supports the COVID-19 mortality in Belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last century |
title_sort |
all-cause mortality supports the covid-19 mortality in belgium and comparison with major fatal events of the last century |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
Archives of Public Health |
issn |
2049-3258 |
publishDate |
2020-11-01 |
description |
Abstract Background The COVID-19 mortality rate in Belgium has been ranked among the highest in the world. To assess the appropriateness of the country’s COVID-19 mortality surveillance, that includes long-term care facilities deaths and deaths in possible cases, the number of COVID-19 deaths was compared with the number of deaths from all-cause mortality. Mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic was also compared with historical mortality rates from the last century including those of the Spanish influenza pandemic. Methods Excess mortality predictions and COVID-19 mortality data were analysed for the period March 10th to June 21st 2020. The number of COVID-19 deaths and the COVID-19 mortality rate per million were calculated for hospitals, nursing homes and other places of death, according to diagnostic status (confirmed/possible infection). To evaluate historical mortality, monthly mortality rates were calculated from January 1900 to June 2020. Results Nine thousand five hundred ninety-one COVID-19 deaths and 39,076 deaths from all-causes were recorded, with a correlation of 94% (Spearman’s rho, p < 0,01). During the period with statistically significant excess mortality (March 20th to April 28th; total excess mortality 64.7%), 7917 excess deaths were observed among the 20,159 deaths from all-causes. In the same period, 7576 COVID-19 deaths were notified, indicating that 96% of the excess mortality were likely attributable to COVID-19. The inclusion of deaths in nursing homes doubled the COVID-19 mortality rate, while adding deaths in possible cases increased it by 27%. Deaths in laboratory-confirmed cases accounted for 69% of total COVID-19-related deaths and 43% of in-hospital deaths. Although the number of deaths was historically high, the monthly mortality rate was lower in April 2020 compared to the major fatal events of the last century. Conclusions Trends in all-cause mortality during the first wave of the epidemic was a key indicator to validate the Belgium’s high COVID-19 mortality figures. A COVID-19 mortality surveillance limited to deaths from hospitalised and selected laboratory-confirmed cases would have underestimated the magnitude of the epidemic. Excess mortality, daily and monthly number of deaths in Belgium were historically high classifying undeniably the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic as a fatal event. |
topic |
COVID-19 Mortality All-cause mortality Excess mortality Pandemic |
url |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13690-020-00496-x |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT nataliabustossierra allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury AT nathaliebossuyt allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury AT toonbraeye allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury AT mathiasleroy allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury AT isabellemoyersoen allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury AT ilsepeeters allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury AT alinescohy allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury AT johanvanderheyden allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury AT hermanvanoyen allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury AT francoiserenard allcausemortalitysupportsthecovid19mortalityinbelgiumandcomparisonwithmajorfataleventsofthelastcentury |
_version_ |
1724421327383691264 |