A Comparison Between Subjective and Objective Methods of Predicting Health Care Expenses to Support Consumers’ Health Insurance Plan Choice

Objective. Numerous electronic tools help consumers select health insurance plans based on their estimated health care utilization. However, the best way to personalize these tools is unknown. The purpose of this study was to compare two common methods of personalizing health insurance plan displays...

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Main Authors: Mary C. Politi, Enbal Shacham, Abigail R. Barker, Nerissa George, Nageen Mir, Sydney Philpott, Jingxia Esther Liu, Ellen Peters
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SAGE Publishing 2018-06-01
Series:MDM Policy & Practice
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1177/2381468318781093
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spelling doaj-c5348bc66f414aee8b24985e079281982020-11-25T02:48:08ZengSAGE PublishingMDM Policy & Practice2381-46832018-06-01310.1177/2381468318781093A Comparison Between Subjective and Objective Methods of Predicting Health Care Expenses to Support Consumers’ Health Insurance Plan ChoiceMary C. PolitiEnbal ShachamAbigail R. BarkerNerissa GeorgeNageen MirSydney PhilpottJingxia Esther LiuEllen PetersObjective. Numerous electronic tools help consumers select health insurance plans based on their estimated health care utilization. However, the best way to personalize these tools is unknown. The purpose of this study was to compare two common methods of personalizing health insurance plan displays: 1) quantitative healthcare utilization predictions using nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data and 2) subjective-health status predictions. We also explored their relations to self-reported health care utilization. Methods. Secondary data analysis was conducted with responses from 327 adults under age 65 considering health insurance enrollment in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Participants were asked to report their subjective health, health conditions, and demographic information. MEPS data were used to estimate predicted annual expenditures based on age, gender, and reported health conditions. Self-reported health care utilization was obtained for 120 participants at a 1-year follow-up. Results. MEPS-based predictions and subjective-health status were related ( P < 0.0001). However, MEPS-predicted ranges within subjective-health categories were large. Subjective health was a less reliable predictor of expenses among older adults (age × subjective health, P = 0.04). Neither significantly related to subsequent self-reported health care utilization ( P = 0.18, P = 0.92, respectively). Conclusions. Because MEPS data are nationally representative, they may approximate utilization better than subjective health, particularly among older adults. However, approximating health care utilization is difficult, especially among newly insured. Findings have implications for health insurance decision support tools that personalize plan displays based on cost estimates.https://doi.org/10.1177/2381468318781093
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Mary C. Politi
Enbal Shacham
Abigail R. Barker
Nerissa George
Nageen Mir
Sydney Philpott
Jingxia Esther Liu
Ellen Peters
spellingShingle Mary C. Politi
Enbal Shacham
Abigail R. Barker
Nerissa George
Nageen Mir
Sydney Philpott
Jingxia Esther Liu
Ellen Peters
A Comparison Between Subjective and Objective Methods of Predicting Health Care Expenses to Support Consumers’ Health Insurance Plan Choice
MDM Policy & Practice
author_facet Mary C. Politi
Enbal Shacham
Abigail R. Barker
Nerissa George
Nageen Mir
Sydney Philpott
Jingxia Esther Liu
Ellen Peters
author_sort Mary C. Politi
title A Comparison Between Subjective and Objective Methods of Predicting Health Care Expenses to Support Consumers’ Health Insurance Plan Choice
title_short A Comparison Between Subjective and Objective Methods of Predicting Health Care Expenses to Support Consumers’ Health Insurance Plan Choice
title_full A Comparison Between Subjective and Objective Methods of Predicting Health Care Expenses to Support Consumers’ Health Insurance Plan Choice
title_fullStr A Comparison Between Subjective and Objective Methods of Predicting Health Care Expenses to Support Consumers’ Health Insurance Plan Choice
title_full_unstemmed A Comparison Between Subjective and Objective Methods of Predicting Health Care Expenses to Support Consumers’ Health Insurance Plan Choice
title_sort comparison between subjective and objective methods of predicting health care expenses to support consumers’ health insurance plan choice
publisher SAGE Publishing
series MDM Policy & Practice
issn 2381-4683
publishDate 2018-06-01
description Objective. Numerous electronic tools help consumers select health insurance plans based on their estimated health care utilization. However, the best way to personalize these tools is unknown. The purpose of this study was to compare two common methods of personalizing health insurance plan displays: 1) quantitative healthcare utilization predictions using nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data and 2) subjective-health status predictions. We also explored their relations to self-reported health care utilization. Methods. Secondary data analysis was conducted with responses from 327 adults under age 65 considering health insurance enrollment in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Participants were asked to report their subjective health, health conditions, and demographic information. MEPS data were used to estimate predicted annual expenditures based on age, gender, and reported health conditions. Self-reported health care utilization was obtained for 120 participants at a 1-year follow-up. Results. MEPS-based predictions and subjective-health status were related ( P < 0.0001). However, MEPS-predicted ranges within subjective-health categories were large. Subjective health was a less reliable predictor of expenses among older adults (age × subjective health, P = 0.04). Neither significantly related to subsequent self-reported health care utilization ( P = 0.18, P = 0.92, respectively). Conclusions. Because MEPS data are nationally representative, they may approximate utilization better than subjective health, particularly among older adults. However, approximating health care utilization is difficult, especially among newly insured. Findings have implications for health insurance decision support tools that personalize plan displays based on cost estimates.
url https://doi.org/10.1177/2381468318781093
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