Scenario Forecasting Tourist Flows during the COVID-2019 Pandemic
The purpose of the study is to obtain a scenario forecast of the volume and rate of recovery in tourist flows, which have experienced a catastrophic decline due to restrictions imposed by the COronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) threats. As a forecasting tool in conditions of insufficient initial...
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doaj-c57a2480127043e98bdfc733c177aec12021-01-02T16:11:40ZengUniversitas IndonesiaInternational Journal of Technology2086-96142087-21002020-12-011181570157810.14716/ijtech.v11i8.45774577Scenario Forecasting Tourist Flows during the COVID-2019 PandemicOlga Zaborovskaia0Elena Sharafanova1Liudmila Maksanova2The State Institute of Economics, Finance, Law and Technology, Gatchina, Leningrad region, 188300, RussiaSt. Petersburg State University of Economics, Saint-Petersburg, 191023, RussiaThe Baikal Institute of Nature Management of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ulan-Ude, Republic of Buryatia, 670047, RussiaThe purpose of the study is to obtain a scenario forecast of the volume and rate of recovery in tourist flows, which have experienced a catastrophic decline due to restrictions imposed by the COronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) threats. As a forecasting tool in conditions of insufficient initial analytical data, it is proposed to use a model based on the extrapolation of tourist flows. The forecasts were made for Russian regions included in the Interregional Association for Economic Cooperation “The Siberian Agreement”. The research results are presented in the form of four forecast scenarios calculated in the rough forecast methodology under various hypotheses about changing the input parameters of the model.https://ijtech.eng.ui.ac.id/article/view/4577forecastingpandemicrecovery of tourist flowstourism industry |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Olga Zaborovskaia Elena Sharafanova Liudmila Maksanova |
spellingShingle |
Olga Zaborovskaia Elena Sharafanova Liudmila Maksanova Scenario Forecasting Tourist Flows during the COVID-2019 Pandemic International Journal of Technology forecasting pandemic recovery of tourist flows tourism industry |
author_facet |
Olga Zaborovskaia Elena Sharafanova Liudmila Maksanova |
author_sort |
Olga Zaborovskaia |
title |
Scenario Forecasting Tourist Flows during the COVID-2019 Pandemic |
title_short |
Scenario Forecasting Tourist Flows during the COVID-2019 Pandemic |
title_full |
Scenario Forecasting Tourist Flows during the COVID-2019 Pandemic |
title_fullStr |
Scenario Forecasting Tourist Flows during the COVID-2019 Pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Scenario Forecasting Tourist Flows during the COVID-2019 Pandemic |
title_sort |
scenario forecasting tourist flows during the covid-2019 pandemic |
publisher |
Universitas Indonesia |
series |
International Journal of Technology |
issn |
2086-9614 2087-2100 |
publishDate |
2020-12-01 |
description |
The
purpose of the study is to obtain a scenario forecast of the volume and rate of
recovery in tourist flows, which have experienced a catastrophic decline due to
restrictions imposed by the COronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) threats. As a
forecasting tool in conditions of insufficient initial analytical data, it is
proposed to use a model based on the extrapolation of tourist flows. The
forecasts were made for Russian regions included in the Interregional
Association for Economic Cooperation “The Siberian Agreement”. The research
results are presented in the form of four forecast scenarios calculated in the
rough forecast methodology under various hypotheses about changing the input
parameters of the model. |
topic |
forecasting pandemic recovery of tourist flows tourism industry |
url |
https://ijtech.eng.ui.ac.id/article/view/4577 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT olgazaborovskaia scenarioforecastingtouristflowsduringthecovid2019pandemic AT elenasharafanova scenarioforecastingtouristflowsduringthecovid2019pandemic AT liudmilamaksanova scenarioforecastingtouristflowsduringthecovid2019pandemic |
_version_ |
1724352309101592576 |