Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems
Effective climate adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture will require coordination across multiple scales of governance. Decision-makers from local to national scales will be tasked with planning under conditions of high uncertainty, often with minimal data. Participatory scenario planning is...
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doaj-c6d36594e83e4d37a55a7f2598d30f992021-04-02T09:51:31ZengMDPI AGAgriculture2077-04722020-07-011027427410.3390/agriculture10070274Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural SystemsLaura Schmitt Olabisi0Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke1Onyinye Prince Choko2Stella Nwawulu Chiemela3Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie4Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike5Adedapo Ayo Aiyeloja6Department of Community Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USADepartment of Agriculture (Agricultural Economics and Extension Programme), Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike P.M.B. 1010, Ebonyi State, NigeriaDepartment of Forestry and Wildlife Management, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt 500272, NigeriaDepartment of Agricultural Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka 410001, NigeriaDepartment of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USADepartment of Agricultural Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka 410001, NigeriaDepartment of Forestry and Wildlife Management, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt 500272, NigeriaEffective climate adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture will require coordination across multiple scales of governance. Decision-makers from local to national scales will be tasked with planning under conditions of high uncertainty, often with minimal data. Participatory scenario planning is a method for devising adaptation strategies under high uncertainty, and we hypothesized that it could also be used for identifying systemic, inclusive, and transformative adaptation options at the community scale, and for highlighting opportunities for cross-scalar collaboration. We conducted scenario exercises with two communities in southeastern Nigeria that have experienced increasing flooding and other challenges linked to climate variability. Both communities identified drivers of change that intersect with climate, as well as community-scale actions that would improve adaptation to a range of future scenarios. We found evidence that scenario exercises can stimulate communities to develop transformative approaches to climate adaptation that seek to reduce climate risk by creating new systems and processes. We also found that community-identified priorities for strategic action highlight how larger-scale interventions could coordinate with communities to adapt more effectively. Participatory scenario planning is therefore a potentially important tool for adaptation planning in regions in which future conditions are highly uncertain.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/10/7/274scenariosclimate changeadaptationcommunitygovernance |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Laura Schmitt Olabisi Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke Onyinye Prince Choko Stella Nwawulu Chiemela Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike Adedapo Ayo Aiyeloja |
spellingShingle |
Laura Schmitt Olabisi Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke Onyinye Prince Choko Stella Nwawulu Chiemela Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike Adedapo Ayo Aiyeloja Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems Agriculture scenarios climate change adaptation community governance |
author_facet |
Laura Schmitt Olabisi Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke Onyinye Prince Choko Stella Nwawulu Chiemela Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike Adedapo Ayo Aiyeloja |
author_sort |
Laura Schmitt Olabisi |
title |
Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems |
title_short |
Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems |
title_full |
Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems |
title_fullStr |
Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems |
title_sort |
scenario planning for climate adaptation in agricultural systems |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Agriculture |
issn |
2077-0472 |
publishDate |
2020-07-01 |
description |
Effective climate adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture will require coordination across multiple scales of governance. Decision-makers from local to national scales will be tasked with planning under conditions of high uncertainty, often with minimal data. Participatory scenario planning is a method for devising adaptation strategies under high uncertainty, and we hypothesized that it could also be used for identifying systemic, inclusive, and transformative adaptation options at the community scale, and for highlighting opportunities for cross-scalar collaboration. We conducted scenario exercises with two communities in southeastern Nigeria that have experienced increasing flooding and other challenges linked to climate variability. Both communities identified drivers of change that intersect with climate, as well as community-scale actions that would improve adaptation to a range of future scenarios. We found evidence that scenario exercises can stimulate communities to develop transformative approaches to climate adaptation that seek to reduce climate risk by creating new systems and processes. We also found that community-identified priorities for strategic action highlight how larger-scale interventions could coordinate with communities to adapt more effectively. Participatory scenario planning is therefore a potentially important tool for adaptation planning in regions in which future conditions are highly uncertain. |
topic |
scenarios climate change adaptation community governance |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/10/7/274 |
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