Bayesian Estimation of Performance Measures of Cervical Cancer Screening Tests in the Presence of Covariates and Absence of a Gold Standard
In this paper we develop a Bayesian analysis to estimate the disease prevalence, the sensitivity and specificity of three cervical cancer screening tests (cervical cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid and Hybrid Capture II) in the presence of a covariate and in the absence of a gold standard...
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doaj-c820d1bbc27840c28c12c470e40099232020-11-25T03:30:17ZengSAGE PublishingCancer Informatics1176-93512008-01-0163346Bayesian Estimation of Performance Measures of Cervical Cancer Screening Tests in the Presence of Covariates and Absence of a Gold StandardKari Juhani SyrjänenLuis Otávio Zanatta SarianRenata Clementino GontijoJorge Alberto AchcarSophie Françoise Mauricette DerchainFrancisco Louzada-NetoEdson Zangiacomi MartinezIn this paper we develop a Bayesian analysis to estimate the disease prevalence, the sensitivity and specificity of three cervical cancer screening tests (cervical cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid and Hybrid Capture II) in the presence of a covariate and in the absence of a gold standard. We use Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. The estimated prevalence of cervical lesions was 6.4% (a 95% credible interval [95% CI] was 3.9, 9.3). The sensitivity of cervical cytology (with a result of ≥ ASC-US) was 53.6% (95% CI: 42.1, 65.0) compared with 52.9% (95% CI: 43.5, 62.5) for visual inspection with acetic acid and 90.3% (95% CI: 76.2, 98.7) for Hybrid Capture II (with result of >1 relative light units). The specificity of cervical cytology was 97.0% (95% CI: 95.5, 98.4) and the specificities for visual inspection with acetic acid and Hybrid Capture II were 93.0% (95% CI: 91.0, 94.7) and 88.7% (95% CI:85.9, 91.4), respectively. The Bayesian model with covariates suggests that the sensitivity and the specificity of the visual inspection with acetic acid tend to increase as the age of the women increases. The Bayesian method proposed here is an useful alternative to estimate measures of performance of diagnostic tests in the presence of covariates and when a gold standard is not available. An advantage of the method is the fact that the number of parameters to be estimated is not limited by the number of observations, as it happens with several frequentist approaches. However, it is important to point out that the Bayesian analysis requires informative priors in order for the parameters to be identifiable. The method can be easily extended for the analysis of other medical data sets.http://la-press.com/article.php?article_id=562Bayesian analysisdiagnostic testslatent variablescervical cytologyvisual inspection with acetic acidHybrid Capture II |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Kari Juhani Syrjänen Luis Otávio Zanatta Sarian Renata Clementino Gontijo Jorge Alberto Achcar Sophie Françoise Mauricette Derchain Francisco Louzada-Neto Edson Zangiacomi Martinez |
spellingShingle |
Kari Juhani Syrjänen Luis Otávio Zanatta Sarian Renata Clementino Gontijo Jorge Alberto Achcar Sophie Françoise Mauricette Derchain Francisco Louzada-Neto Edson Zangiacomi Martinez Bayesian Estimation of Performance Measures of Cervical Cancer Screening Tests in the Presence of Covariates and Absence of a Gold Standard Cancer Informatics Bayesian analysis diagnostic tests latent variables cervical cytology visual inspection with acetic acid Hybrid Capture II |
author_facet |
Kari Juhani Syrjänen Luis Otávio Zanatta Sarian Renata Clementino Gontijo Jorge Alberto Achcar Sophie Françoise Mauricette Derchain Francisco Louzada-Neto Edson Zangiacomi Martinez |
author_sort |
Kari Juhani Syrjänen |
title |
Bayesian Estimation of Performance Measures of Cervical Cancer Screening Tests in the Presence of Covariates and Absence of a Gold Standard |
title_short |
Bayesian Estimation of Performance Measures of Cervical Cancer Screening Tests in the Presence of Covariates and Absence of a Gold Standard |
title_full |
Bayesian Estimation of Performance Measures of Cervical Cancer Screening Tests in the Presence of Covariates and Absence of a Gold Standard |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian Estimation of Performance Measures of Cervical Cancer Screening Tests in the Presence of Covariates and Absence of a Gold Standard |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian Estimation of Performance Measures of Cervical Cancer Screening Tests in the Presence of Covariates and Absence of a Gold Standard |
title_sort |
bayesian estimation of performance measures of cervical cancer screening tests in the presence of covariates and absence of a gold standard |
publisher |
SAGE Publishing |
series |
Cancer Informatics |
issn |
1176-9351 |
publishDate |
2008-01-01 |
description |
In this paper we develop a Bayesian analysis to estimate the disease prevalence, the sensitivity and specificity of three cervical cancer screening tests (cervical cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid and Hybrid Capture II) in the presence of a covariate and in the absence of a gold standard. We use Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. The estimated prevalence of cervical lesions was 6.4% (a 95% credible interval [95% CI] was 3.9, 9.3). The sensitivity of cervical cytology (with a result of ≥ ASC-US) was 53.6% (95% CI: 42.1, 65.0) compared with 52.9% (95% CI: 43.5, 62.5) for visual inspection with acetic acid and 90.3% (95% CI: 76.2, 98.7) for Hybrid Capture II (with result of >1 relative light units). The specificity of cervical cytology was 97.0% (95% CI: 95.5, 98.4) and the specificities for visual inspection with acetic acid and Hybrid Capture II were 93.0% (95% CI: 91.0, 94.7) and 88.7% (95% CI:85.9, 91.4), respectively. The Bayesian model with covariates suggests that the sensitivity and the specificity of the visual inspection with acetic acid tend to increase as the age of the women increases. The Bayesian method proposed here is an useful alternative to estimate measures of performance of diagnostic tests in the presence of covariates and when a gold standard is not available. An advantage of the method is the fact that the number of parameters to be estimated is not limited by the number of observations, as it happens with several frequentist approaches. However, it is important to point out that the Bayesian analysis requires informative priors in order for the parameters to be identifiable. The method can be easily extended for the analysis of other medical data sets. |
topic |
Bayesian analysis diagnostic tests latent variables cervical cytology visual inspection with acetic acid Hybrid Capture II |
url |
http://la-press.com/article.php?article_id=562 |
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