Forecasting natural gas consumption of China by using a novel fractional grey model with time power term
Natural gas, an important low-carbon and clean energy, is increasingly replacing high-pollution sources such as coal and gasoline. Accurate natural gas consumption forecasts are important to policy makers in making plans, saving costs, and improving efficiency. This study developed a discrete fracti...
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doaj-c840bb5695024e92b0ac9959d31be88c2021-02-05T15:31:38ZengElsevierEnergy Reports2352-48472021-11-017788797Forecasting natural gas consumption of China by using a novel fractional grey model with time power termChong Liu0Wen-Ze Wu1Wanli Xie2Tao Zhang3Jun Zhang4School of Science, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, ChinaSchool of Economics and Business Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China; Corresponding authors.Institute of EduInfo Science and Engineering, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, ChinaSchool of Science, Guangxi University of Science and Technology, Liuzhou 545006, China; Corresponding authors.School of Science, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, ChinaNatural gas, an important low-carbon and clean energy, is increasingly replacing high-pollution sources such as coal and gasoline. Accurate natural gas consumption forecasts are important to policy makers in making plans, saving costs, and improving efficiency. This study developed a discrete fractional grey model with a time power term (denoted as DFGM(1,1,tα)) with reference to the discretization technique. The new model is simplified, generalized, and overcomes existing model drawbacks. Moreover, the quantum genetic algorithm (QGA) is used to determine the new coefficients, namely, the fractional order and time-power coefficient. Based on observations from 2001 to 2018, the novel model predicted the natural gas consumption in China from 2019 to 2025 better than other benchmarks. Specifically, natural gas consumption was predicted to maintain a steady upward trend, reaching 315.30 billion cubic metres (hereinafter referred to as Bcm) in 2020 and 439.14 Bcm in 2025. Reasonable suggestions are put forward for associated sectors based on the forecasts.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484721000834Natural gas consumptionDFGM(1,1,tα)Quantum Genetic Algorithm (QGA) |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Chong Liu Wen-Ze Wu Wanli Xie Tao Zhang Jun Zhang |
spellingShingle |
Chong Liu Wen-Ze Wu Wanli Xie Tao Zhang Jun Zhang Forecasting natural gas consumption of China by using a novel fractional grey model with time power term Energy Reports Natural gas consumption DFGM(1,1,tα) Quantum Genetic Algorithm (QGA) |
author_facet |
Chong Liu Wen-Ze Wu Wanli Xie Tao Zhang Jun Zhang |
author_sort |
Chong Liu |
title |
Forecasting natural gas consumption of China by using a novel fractional grey model with time power term |
title_short |
Forecasting natural gas consumption of China by using a novel fractional grey model with time power term |
title_full |
Forecasting natural gas consumption of China by using a novel fractional grey model with time power term |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting natural gas consumption of China by using a novel fractional grey model with time power term |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting natural gas consumption of China by using a novel fractional grey model with time power term |
title_sort |
forecasting natural gas consumption of china by using a novel fractional grey model with time power term |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
Energy Reports |
issn |
2352-4847 |
publishDate |
2021-11-01 |
description |
Natural gas, an important low-carbon and clean energy, is increasingly replacing high-pollution sources such as coal and gasoline. Accurate natural gas consumption forecasts are important to policy makers in making plans, saving costs, and improving efficiency. This study developed a discrete fractional grey model with a time power term (denoted as DFGM(1,1,tα)) with reference to the discretization technique. The new model is simplified, generalized, and overcomes existing model drawbacks. Moreover, the quantum genetic algorithm (QGA) is used to determine the new coefficients, namely, the fractional order and time-power coefficient. Based on observations from 2001 to 2018, the novel model predicted the natural gas consumption in China from 2019 to 2025 better than other benchmarks. Specifically, natural gas consumption was predicted to maintain a steady upward trend, reaching 315.30 billion cubic metres (hereinafter referred to as Bcm) in 2020 and 439.14 Bcm in 2025. Reasonable suggestions are put forward for associated sectors based on the forecasts. |
topic |
Natural gas consumption DFGM(1,1,tα) Quantum Genetic Algorithm (QGA) |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484721000834 |
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