| Summary: | A reliability analysis of an existing structure and a carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP)-strengthened structure is commonly used to evaluate the effectiveness of strengthening. It also provides the basis for the calibration of the partial factors involved in strengthening design codes. As the fundamental data, the statistical characteristics of the CFRP tensile strength affect the evaluation result. In general, the statistical characteristics of the CFRP strength were obtained from laboratory experiments with small-scale specimens, which resulted in errors caused by the size effect. In this study, a probabilistic series-parallel model is developed to describe the size effect of CFRP. The CFRP fabric is divided into a set of representative volume elements. By numerically simulating the CFRP strength, the relationship between the number of representative volume elements and the mean and coefficient of variation (COV) of the CFRP strength is analyzed. A chi-square test is carried out to determine the distribution type of the CFRP strength. An analytical expression of the mean, COV, and the cumulated density function of the CFRP strength are derived. Finally, an existing bridge, which has operated for 41 years, is selected for the case study; it is strengthened by using CFRP fabric. Reliability indexes of the existing and the strengthened bridges are calculated to analyze the size effect on the reliability of the strengthened structure.
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