| Summary: | The purpose of our work was to assess the independent and incremental value of AI-derived quantitative determination of lung lesions extent on initial CT scan for the prediction of clinical deterioration or death in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia. 323 consecutive patients (mean age 65 ± 15 years, 192 men), with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and an abnormal chest CT scan, were admitted to the hospital between March and December 2020. The extent of consolidation and all lung opacities were quantified on an initial CT scan using a 3D automatic AI-based software. The outcome was known for all these patients. 85 (26.3%) patients died or experienced clinical deterioration, defined as intensive care unit admission. In multivariate regression based on clinical, biological and CT parameters, the extent of all opacities, and extent of consolidation were independent predictors of adverse outcomes, as were diabetes, heart disease, C-reactive protein, and neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio. The association of CT-derived measures with clinical and biological parameters significantly improved the risk prediction (<i>p</i> = 0.049). Automated quantification of lung disease at CT in COVID-19 pneumonia is useful to predict clinical deterioration or in-hospital death. Its combination with clinical and biological data improves risk prediction.
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