A Regional Day-Ahead Rooftop Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Model Considering Unauthorized Photovoltaic Installation
Rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems are usually behind the meter and invisible to utilities and retailers and, thus, their power generation is not monitored. If a number of rooftop PV systems are installed, it transforms the net load pattern in power systems. Moreover, not only generation but also PV...
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Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/14/4256 |
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doaj-c8fafd21f21f4ac0aa352087c8690be32021-07-23T13:39:02ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732021-07-01144256425610.3390/en14144256A Regional Day-Ahead Rooftop Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Model Considering Unauthorized Photovoltaic InstallationTaeyoung Kim0Jinho Kim1Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), School of Integrated Technology, Gwangju 61005, KoreaGwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), School of Integrated Technology, Gwangju 61005, KoreaRooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems are usually behind the meter and invisible to utilities and retailers and, thus, their power generation is not monitored. If a number of rooftop PV systems are installed, it transforms the net load pattern in power systems. Moreover, not only generation but also PV capacity information is invisible due to unauthorized PV installations, causing inaccuracies in regional PV generation forecasting. This study proposes a regional rooftop PV generation forecasting methodology by adding unauthorized PV capacity estimation. PV capacity estimation consists of two steps: detection of unauthorized PV generation and estimation capacity of detected PV. Finally, regional rooftop PV generation is predicted by considering unauthorized PV capacity through the support vector regression (SVR) and upscaling method. The results from a case study show that compared with estimation without unauthorized PV capacity, the proposed methodology reduces the normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) by 5.41% and the normalized mean absolute error (nMAE) by 2.95%, It can be concluded that regional rooftop PV generation forecasting accuracy is improved.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/14/4256regional PV output forecastingupscaling methodrooftop PVunauthorized PV installation |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Taeyoung Kim Jinho Kim |
spellingShingle |
Taeyoung Kim Jinho Kim A Regional Day-Ahead Rooftop Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Model Considering Unauthorized Photovoltaic Installation Energies regional PV output forecasting upscaling method rooftop PV unauthorized PV installation |
author_facet |
Taeyoung Kim Jinho Kim |
author_sort |
Taeyoung Kim |
title |
A Regional Day-Ahead Rooftop Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Model Considering Unauthorized Photovoltaic Installation |
title_short |
A Regional Day-Ahead Rooftop Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Model Considering Unauthorized Photovoltaic Installation |
title_full |
A Regional Day-Ahead Rooftop Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Model Considering Unauthorized Photovoltaic Installation |
title_fullStr |
A Regional Day-Ahead Rooftop Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Model Considering Unauthorized Photovoltaic Installation |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Regional Day-Ahead Rooftop Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Model Considering Unauthorized Photovoltaic Installation |
title_sort |
regional day-ahead rooftop photovoltaic generation forecasting model considering unauthorized photovoltaic installation |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Energies |
issn |
1996-1073 |
publishDate |
2021-07-01 |
description |
Rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems are usually behind the meter and invisible to utilities and retailers and, thus, their power generation is not monitored. If a number of rooftop PV systems are installed, it transforms the net load pattern in power systems. Moreover, not only generation but also PV capacity information is invisible due to unauthorized PV installations, causing inaccuracies in regional PV generation forecasting. This study proposes a regional rooftop PV generation forecasting methodology by adding unauthorized PV capacity estimation. PV capacity estimation consists of two steps: detection of unauthorized PV generation and estimation capacity of detected PV. Finally, regional rooftop PV generation is predicted by considering unauthorized PV capacity through the support vector regression (SVR) and upscaling method. The results from a case study show that compared with estimation without unauthorized PV capacity, the proposed methodology reduces the normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) by 5.41% and the normalized mean absolute error (nMAE) by 2.95%, It can be concluded that regional rooftop PV generation forecasting accuracy is improved. |
topic |
regional PV output forecasting upscaling method rooftop PV unauthorized PV installation |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/14/4256 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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