Researching the Financial Cycle Patterns of the Economies of the World’s Countries and Ukraine

• Main Authors: Laktionova Oleksandra A., Benzar Olena V.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Research Centre of Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine 2020-06-01
• Series: Bìznes Inform
• Subjects: financial cycle; financial integration; durbin–watson criterion; gdp; loans; real estate prices index
• Online Access: https://www.business-inform.net/export_pdf/business-inform-2020-6_0-pages-252_259.pdf
• ISSN: 2222-4459; 2311-116X

The cyclicality of the world economy necessitates an analysis of the interrelationship between different economic phenomena, as they have a direct impact on the emergence of cyclical shifts in the process of movement of both local and global financial cycles. The article is aimed at analyzing the dynamics of the relevant financial indicators for the countries with advanced economies, developing countries and Ukraine, as well as checking these indicators for cyclicality during the period under review. This analysis is based on a methodical approach to identifying the cyclical nature of the movement of financial cycles, built up with account of the impact of the relevant financial indicators on the patterns of occurrence of fluctuations during the period of 2008-2019. The main economic indicators, characterizing the features of the fluctuations in financial cycles, which are taken as a basis in carrying out the research, are: the level of growth in real GDP; total volume of loans to the non-financial sector of the economy; the ratio indicator of the total volume of loans to the non-financial sector of the economy to nominal GDP; real estate prices index. In analyzing the cyclicality of both local and global financial cycles, the Durbin–Watson criterion was the main statistical criterion for identifying the relationship between existing cycles. The research results in the identified key causes of the corresponding phase of cyclicality of the local financial cycle, depending on the current status of the global financial cycle. The hypothesis of a relationship between the cyclical movement of local and global financial cycles is substantiated. A direct dependence of the movement of the local financial cycle on fluctuations in the global financial cycle is identified.