| Summary: | The automatic emergency braking (AEB) system is an effective intelligent vehicle active safety system for avoiding certain types of collisions. This study develops a national-level safety impact evaluation model for this intelligent vehicle function, including the potential maximum impact and realistic impact. The evaluation model was firstly applied in China to provide insights into Chinese policymaking. Road traffic fatality and severe injury trends, the proportion of different collision types, the effectiveness of collision avoidance, and the AEB market penetration rates are considered in the potential maximum impact scenario. Furthermore, the AEB activation rate and the technology’s technical limitations, including its effectiveness in different weather, light, and speed conditions, are discussed in the realistic scenario. With a 100% market penetration rate, fatalities could be reduced by 13.2%, and injuries could be reduced by 9.1%. Based on China’s policy, the market penetration rate of intelligent vehicles with AEB is predicted to be 34.0% in 2025 and 60.3% in 2030. With this large market penetration rate increase of AEB, the reductions in fatalities and severe injuries are 903–2309 and 2025–5055 in 2025; and 1483–3789 and 3895–7835 in 2030, respectively. Considering AEB’s activation rate and its three main limitations, the adjusted realistic result is approximately 2/5 of the potential maximum result.
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