The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil
By 2002, dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 had circulated for more than a decade in Brazil. In 2002, the introduction of DENV-3 in the state of Bahia produced a massive epidemic and the first cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Based on the standardized frequency, timing and location of vir...
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Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde
2007-12-01
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doaj-d4b3bfdbf6f4403085f33e63ac375b752020-11-25T00:46:39ZengInstituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da SaúdeMemórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz.0074-02761678-80602007-12-01102890591210.1590/S0074-02762007000800003The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, BrazilPaulo Roberto Santana de MeloEliana Almeida Gomes ReisIsolina Allen CiuffoMônica GóesRonald Edward BlantonMitermayer Galvão dos ReisBy 2002, dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 had circulated for more than a decade in Brazil. In 2002, the introduction of DENV-3 in the state of Bahia produced a massive epidemic and the first cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Based on the standardized frequency, timing and location of viral isolations by the state's Central Laboratory, DENV-3 probably entered Bahia through its capital, Salvador, and then rapidly disseminated to other cities, following the main roads. A linear regression model that included traffic flow, distance from the capital and DENV-1 circulation (r² = 0.24, p = 0.001) supported this hypothesis. This pattern was not seen for serotypes already in circulation and was not seen for DENV-3 in the following year. Human population density was another important factor in the intensity of viral circulation. Neither DENV-1 nor DENV-2 fit this model for 2001 or 2003. Since the vector has limited flight range and vector densities fail to correlate with intensity of viral circulation, this distribution represents the movement of infected people and to some extent mosquitoes. This pattern may mimic person-to-person spread of a new infection.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762007000800003dengueemerging diseasessurveillanceAedes aegyptipublic healthmodeling |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Paulo Roberto Santana de Melo Eliana Almeida Gomes Reis Isolina Allen Ciuffo Mônica Góes Ronald Edward Blanton Mitermayer Galvão dos Reis |
spellingShingle |
Paulo Roberto Santana de Melo Eliana Almeida Gomes Reis Isolina Allen Ciuffo Mônica Góes Ronald Edward Blanton Mitermayer Galvão dos Reis The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. dengue emerging diseases surveillance Aedes aegypti public health modeling |
author_facet |
Paulo Roberto Santana de Melo Eliana Almeida Gomes Reis Isolina Allen Ciuffo Mônica Góes Ronald Edward Blanton Mitermayer Galvão dos Reis |
author_sort |
Paulo Roberto Santana de Melo |
title |
The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil |
title_short |
The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil |
title_full |
The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil |
title_fullStr |
The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil |
title_sort |
dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of bahia, brazil |
publisher |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
series |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. |
issn |
0074-0276 1678-8060 |
publishDate |
2007-12-01 |
description |
By 2002, dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 had circulated for more than a decade in Brazil. In 2002, the introduction of DENV-3 in the state of Bahia produced a massive epidemic and the first cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Based on the standardized frequency, timing and location of viral isolations by the state's Central Laboratory, DENV-3 probably entered Bahia through its capital, Salvador, and then rapidly disseminated to other cities, following the main roads. A linear regression model that included traffic flow, distance from the capital and DENV-1 circulation (r² = 0.24, p = 0.001) supported this hypothesis. This pattern was not seen for serotypes already in circulation and was not seen for DENV-3 in the following year. Human population density was another important factor in the intensity of viral circulation. Neither DENV-1 nor DENV-2 fit this model for 2001 or 2003. Since the vector has limited flight range and vector densities fail to correlate with intensity of viral circulation, this distribution represents the movement of infected people and to some extent mosquitoes. This pattern may mimic person-to-person spread of a new infection. |
topic |
dengue emerging diseases surveillance Aedes aegypti public health modeling |
url |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762007000800003 |
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