Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016
An obvious decline in runoff of the Weihe River has been detected during the last half-century. Climate change and human activity acted as two major factors inducing the reduction. However, little knowledge is acquired on how and to what extent the decadal climate change and human activity induced r...
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doaj-d53f339dc3a14336a658e5c6f69e07db2020-11-25T02:25:23ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412020-05-01121416141610.3390/w12051416Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016Shuai Yang0Tingting Kang1Jingyi Bu2Jiahao Chen3Zhipeng Wang4Yanchun Gao5Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environment, University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaAn obvious decline in runoff of the Weihe River has been detected during the last half-century. Climate change and human activity acted as two major factors inducing the reduction. However, little knowledge is acquired on how and to what extent the decadal climate change and human activity induced runoff variations, which is essential for regional water resources planning and management. In this study, the observed data of 3 hydrological stations and 31 meteorological stations were used to analyze the runoff variability, and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model (Xu Liang, Seattle, WA, United States of America) coupled with scenario simulation was employed to attribute runoff variation of each period. The results showed that runoff decreased significantly at a rate of −1.01 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>·year<sup>−1</sup> with obvious stage characteristic during 1961–2016. The water yield was highest in the 1960s and varying degrees of decline were detected in the following periods, resulting in a decrease of available freshwater by 20.54%–58.24%. Human activity had a dominant contribution to induce an increasing runoff decline from 2.068 to 5.776 km<sup>3</sup>, while the effect of climate was relatively small and lead to runoff reduction, except in the 1970s. This study gave a comprehensive understanding of time-varying runoff variability and highlighted the importance of appropriate human intervention with respect to climate change to ensure water resources security.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/5/1416runoff reductiontime-varying analysisclimate changehuman activityVIC modelattribution analysis |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Shuai Yang Tingting Kang Jingyi Bu Jiahao Chen Zhipeng Wang Yanchun Gao |
spellingShingle |
Shuai Yang Tingting Kang Jingyi Bu Jiahao Chen Zhipeng Wang Yanchun Gao Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016 Water runoff reduction time-varying analysis climate change human activity VIC model attribution analysis |
author_facet |
Shuai Yang Tingting Kang Jingyi Bu Jiahao Chen Zhipeng Wang Yanchun Gao |
author_sort |
Shuai Yang |
title |
Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016 |
title_short |
Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016 |
title_full |
Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016 |
title_fullStr |
Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detection and Attribution of Runoff Reduction of Weihe River over Different Periods during 1961–2016 |
title_sort |
detection and attribution of runoff reduction of weihe river over different periods during 1961–2016 |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Water |
issn |
2073-4441 |
publishDate |
2020-05-01 |
description |
An obvious decline in runoff of the Weihe River has been detected during the last half-century. Climate change and human activity acted as two major factors inducing the reduction. However, little knowledge is acquired on how and to what extent the decadal climate change and human activity induced runoff variations, which is essential for regional water resources planning and management. In this study, the observed data of 3 hydrological stations and 31 meteorological stations were used to analyze the runoff variability, and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model (Xu Liang, Seattle, WA, United States of America) coupled with scenario simulation was employed to attribute runoff variation of each period. The results showed that runoff decreased significantly at a rate of −1.01 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>·year<sup>−1</sup> with obvious stage characteristic during 1961–2016. The water yield was highest in the 1960s and varying degrees of decline were detected in the following periods, resulting in a decrease of available freshwater by 20.54%–58.24%. Human activity had a dominant contribution to induce an increasing runoff decline from 2.068 to 5.776 km<sup>3</sup>, while the effect of climate was relatively small and lead to runoff reduction, except in the 1970s. This study gave a comprehensive understanding of time-varying runoff variability and highlighted the importance of appropriate human intervention with respect to climate change to ensure water resources security. |
topic |
runoff reduction time-varying analysis climate change human activity VIC model attribution analysis |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/5/1416 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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1724851590199771136 |