Projecting Mammal Distributions in Response to Future Alternative Landscapes in a Rapidly Transitioning Region
Finding balance between the needs of people and wildlife is an essential component of planning sustainable landscapes. Because mammals make up a diverse and ecologically important taxon with varying responses to human disturbance, we used representative mammal species to examine how alternative land...
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doaj-d6e5ebfef1204b6cb0afb28f66973a5b2020-11-25T02:33:26ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922019-10-011121248210.3390/rs11212482rs11212482Projecting Mammal Distributions in Response to Future Alternative Landscapes in a Rapidly Transitioning RegionMichael V. Cove0Craig Fergus1Iara Lacher2Thomas Akre3William J. McShea4Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA 22630, USASmithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA 22630, USASmithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA 22630, USASmithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA 22630, USASmithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA 22630, USAFinding balance between the needs of people and wildlife is an essential component of planning sustainable landscapes. Because mammals make up a diverse and ecologically important taxon with varying responses to human disturbance, we used representative mammal species to examine how alternative land-use policies might affect their habitats and distributions in the near future. We used wildlife detections from camera traps at 1591 locations along a large-scale urban to wild gradient in northern Virginia, to create occupancy models which determined land cover relationships and the drivers of contemporary mammal distributions. From the 15 species detected, we classified five representative species into two groups based on their responses to human development; sensitive species (American black bears and bobcats) and synanthropic species (red foxes, domestic cats, and white-tailed deer). We then used the habitat models for the representative species to predict their distributions under four future planning scenarios based on strategic versus reactive planning and high or low human population growth. The distributions of sensitive species did not shrink drastically under any scenario, whereas the distributions of synanthropic species increased in response to anthropogenic development, but the magnitude of the response varied based on the projected rate of human population growth. This is likely because most sensitive species are dependent on large, protected public lands in the region, and the majority of projected habitat losses should occur in non-protected private lands. These findings illustrate the importance of public protected lands in mitigating range loss due to land use changes, and the potential positive impact of strategic planning in further mitigating mammalian diversity loss in private lands.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/21/2482land coveroccupancyprotected landsremote camera trapsscenario planning |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Michael V. Cove Craig Fergus Iara Lacher Thomas Akre William J. McShea |
spellingShingle |
Michael V. Cove Craig Fergus Iara Lacher Thomas Akre William J. McShea Projecting Mammal Distributions in Response to Future Alternative Landscapes in a Rapidly Transitioning Region Remote Sensing land cover occupancy protected lands remote camera traps scenario planning |
author_facet |
Michael V. Cove Craig Fergus Iara Lacher Thomas Akre William J. McShea |
author_sort |
Michael V. Cove |
title |
Projecting Mammal Distributions in Response to Future Alternative Landscapes in a Rapidly Transitioning Region |
title_short |
Projecting Mammal Distributions in Response to Future Alternative Landscapes in a Rapidly Transitioning Region |
title_full |
Projecting Mammal Distributions in Response to Future Alternative Landscapes in a Rapidly Transitioning Region |
title_fullStr |
Projecting Mammal Distributions in Response to Future Alternative Landscapes in a Rapidly Transitioning Region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting Mammal Distributions in Response to Future Alternative Landscapes in a Rapidly Transitioning Region |
title_sort |
projecting mammal distributions in response to future alternative landscapes in a rapidly transitioning region |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Remote Sensing |
issn |
2072-4292 |
publishDate |
2019-10-01 |
description |
Finding balance between the needs of people and wildlife is an essential component of planning sustainable landscapes. Because mammals make up a diverse and ecologically important taxon with varying responses to human disturbance, we used representative mammal species to examine how alternative land-use policies might affect their habitats and distributions in the near future. We used wildlife detections from camera traps at 1591 locations along a large-scale urban to wild gradient in northern Virginia, to create occupancy models which determined land cover relationships and the drivers of contemporary mammal distributions. From the 15 species detected, we classified five representative species into two groups based on their responses to human development; sensitive species (American black bears and bobcats) and synanthropic species (red foxes, domestic cats, and white-tailed deer). We then used the habitat models for the representative species to predict their distributions under four future planning scenarios based on strategic versus reactive planning and high or low human population growth. The distributions of sensitive species did not shrink drastically under any scenario, whereas the distributions of synanthropic species increased in response to anthropogenic development, but the magnitude of the response varied based on the projected rate of human population growth. This is likely because most sensitive species are dependent on large, protected public lands in the region, and the majority of projected habitat losses should occur in non-protected private lands. These findings illustrate the importance of public protected lands in mitigating range loss due to land use changes, and the potential positive impact of strategic planning in further mitigating mammalian diversity loss in private lands. |
topic |
land cover occupancy protected lands remote camera traps scenario planning |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/21/2482 |
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