To Swab or Not to Swab? The Lesson Learned in Italy in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Testing for the SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical for tracking the spread of the virus and controlling the transmission dynamics. In the early phase of the pandemic in Italy, the decentralized healthcare system allowed regions to adopt different testing strategies. The objective of this paper is to a...
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doaj-d7546285a0ef43ccb85bb71cc1d1ae8d2021-04-29T23:02:28ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172021-04-01114042404210.3390/app11094042To Swab or Not to Swab? The Lesson Learned in Italy in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 PandemicPaola Berchialla0Maria Teresa Giraudo1Carmen Fava2Andrea Ricotti3Giuseppe Saglio4Giulia Lorenzoni5Veronica Sciannameo6Sara Urru7Ilaria Prosepe8Corrado Lanera9Danila Azzolina10Dario Gregori11Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Torino, 10100 Torino, ItalyDepartment of Mathematics, University of Torino, 10100 Torino, ItalyDepartment of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Torino, 10100 Torino, ItalyDepartment of Public Health and Pediatric Sciences, University of Torino, 10100 Torino, ItalyDepartment of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Torino, 10100 Torino, ItalyUnit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, 35121 Padova, ItalyUnit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, 35121 Padova, ItalyDepartment of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Torino, 10100 Torino, ItalyUnit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, 35121 Padova, ItalyUnit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, 35121 Padova, ItalyDepartment Medical Sciences, University of Ferrara, 44121 Ferrara, ItalyUnit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences, and Public Health, University of Padova, 35121 Padova, ItalyTesting for the SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical for tracking the spread of the virus and controlling the transmission dynamics. In the early phase of the pandemic in Italy, the decentralized healthcare system allowed regions to adopt different testing strategies. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of the extensive testing of symptomatic individuals and their contacts on the number of hospitalizations against a more stringent testing strategy limited to suspected cases with severe respiratory illness and an epidemiological link to a COVID-19 case. A Poisson regression modelling approach was adopted. In the first model developed, the cumulative daily number of positive cases and a temporal trend were considered as explanatory variables. In the second, the cumulative daily number of swabs was further added. The explanatory variable, given by the number of swabs over time, explained most of the observed differences in the number of hospitalizations between the two strategies. The percentage of the expected error dropped from 70% of the first, simpler model to 15%. Increasing testing to detect and isolate infected individuals in the early phase of an outbreak improves the capability to reduce the spread of serious infections, lessening the burden of hospitals.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/9/4042SARS-CoV-2infectious disease outbreakdiagnostic testingcommunity healthcare |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Paola Berchialla Maria Teresa Giraudo Carmen Fava Andrea Ricotti Giuseppe Saglio Giulia Lorenzoni Veronica Sciannameo Sara Urru Ilaria Prosepe Corrado Lanera Danila Azzolina Dario Gregori |
spellingShingle |
Paola Berchialla Maria Teresa Giraudo Carmen Fava Andrea Ricotti Giuseppe Saglio Giulia Lorenzoni Veronica Sciannameo Sara Urru Ilaria Prosepe Corrado Lanera Danila Azzolina Dario Gregori To Swab or Not to Swab? The Lesson Learned in Italy in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic Applied Sciences SARS-CoV-2 infectious disease outbreak diagnostic testing community healthcare |
author_facet |
Paola Berchialla Maria Teresa Giraudo Carmen Fava Andrea Ricotti Giuseppe Saglio Giulia Lorenzoni Veronica Sciannameo Sara Urru Ilaria Prosepe Corrado Lanera Danila Azzolina Dario Gregori |
author_sort |
Paola Berchialla |
title |
To Swab or Not to Swab? The Lesson Learned in Italy in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_short |
To Swab or Not to Swab? The Lesson Learned in Italy in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_full |
To Swab or Not to Swab? The Lesson Learned in Italy in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_fullStr |
To Swab or Not to Swab? The Lesson Learned in Italy in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
To Swab or Not to Swab? The Lesson Learned in Italy in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_sort |
to swab or not to swab? the lesson learned in italy in the early stage of the covid-19 pandemic |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Applied Sciences |
issn |
2076-3417 |
publishDate |
2021-04-01 |
description |
Testing for the SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical for tracking the spread of the virus and controlling the transmission dynamics. In the early phase of the pandemic in Italy, the decentralized healthcare system allowed regions to adopt different testing strategies. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of the extensive testing of symptomatic individuals and their contacts on the number of hospitalizations against a more stringent testing strategy limited to suspected cases with severe respiratory illness and an epidemiological link to a COVID-19 case. A Poisson regression modelling approach was adopted. In the first model developed, the cumulative daily number of positive cases and a temporal trend were considered as explanatory variables. In the second, the cumulative daily number of swabs was further added. The explanatory variable, given by the number of swabs over time, explained most of the observed differences in the number of hospitalizations between the two strategies. The percentage of the expected error dropped from 70% of the first, simpler model to 15%. Increasing testing to detect and isolate infected individuals in the early phase of an outbreak improves the capability to reduce the spread of serious infections, lessening the burden of hospitals. |
topic |
SARS-CoV-2 infectious disease outbreak diagnostic testing community healthcare |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/9/4042 |
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