Estimating the water needed to end the drought or reduce the drought severity in the Carpathian region
A drought severity climatology for the Carpathian region has been produced using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (Sc-PDSI) for the period 1961–2010. Using the Sc-PDSI and the assumptions of the Palmer drought model (PDM) the precipitation required for drought termination (when Sc-...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/177/2015/hess-19-177-2015.pdf |
| Summary: | A drought severity climatology for the Carpathian region has been produced
using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (Sc-PDSI) for the
period 1961–2010. Using the Sc-PDSI and the assumptions of the Palmer
drought model (PDM) the precipitation required for drought termination (when
Sc-PDSI reaches −0.5) and amelioration (when Sc-PDSI reaches −2.0) are
computed for periods of 1, 3, and 6 months. We discuss the reduction of the
uncertainty in the determination of the beginning and ending of drought
conditions, and provide a quantitative measure of the probability that any
drought could be ameliorated or terminated. We present how the spatial
variability of the amount of water needed for drought recovery and the
climatological probability of receiving that amount of water is determined
by the local conditions against the general climate characteristics of a
small area such as the Carpathian region. Regionally, the Pannonian Basin,
the Transylvanian Plateau and the external Carpathian foothills and plains
in the southern and eastern part of the region require the highest quantity
of precipitation to recover from a drought while having the lowest
climatological probabilities for such amounts of rainfall. High
precipitation amounts over the northern and northwest part of the region result
in higher soil moisture supplies and higher climatological probabilities to
end a given drought event. Moreover, the succession and/or predominance of
particular types of general atmospheric circulation patterns produce a
seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability of precipitation that is
quantitatively reflected in the excess of precipitation that is above normal
required for drought recovery. Overall, the results of this study provide an
overview on the chances of recovery from a drought period with moderate or
severe drought and present information useful in decision making in water
and drought management. |
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| ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |