On the complexity of traffic judges' decisions
Professional judges in traffic courts sentence many hundreds of offenders per year. Using 639 case files from archives, we compared the Matching Heuristic (MH) to compensatory, weighing algorithms (WM). We modeled and cross validated the models on different subsets of the data, and took several othe...
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Society for Judgment and Decision Making
2008-12-01
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doaj-dac7942fcc0f40e38a9e54ad36e7808c2021-05-02T04:56:53ZengSociety for Judgment and Decision MakingJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752008-12-0138667678On the complexity of traffic judges' decisionsDavid LeiserDov-Ron SchatzbergProfessional judges in traffic courts sentence many hundreds of offenders per year. Using 639 case files from archives, we compared the Matching Heuristic (MH) to compensatory, weighing algorithms (WM). We modeled and cross validated the models on different subsets of the data, and took several other methodological precautions such as allowing each model to select the optimal number of variables and ordering and weighing the variables in accordance to different logics. We did not reproduce the finding by Dhami (2003), who found the MH to be superior to a compensatory algorithm in modeling bail-granting decisions. These simulations brought out the inner logic of the two family of models, showing what combination of parameters works best. It remains remarkable that using only a fraction of the variables and combining them non-compensatorily, MH obtained nearly as good a fit as the weighing method. http://journal.sjdm.org/06154/jdm06154.pdfbounded rationality; judgments; frugal;take-the-best; decision-making; simple heuristics; models; matchingheuristic. |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
David Leiser Dov-Ron Schatzberg |
spellingShingle |
David Leiser Dov-Ron Schatzberg On the complexity of traffic judges' decisions Judgment and Decision Making bounded rationality; judgments; frugal;take-the-best; decision-making; simple heuristics; models; matchingheuristic. |
author_facet |
David Leiser Dov-Ron Schatzberg |
author_sort |
David Leiser |
title |
On the complexity of traffic judges' decisions |
title_short |
On the complexity of traffic judges' decisions |
title_full |
On the complexity of traffic judges' decisions |
title_fullStr |
On the complexity of traffic judges' decisions |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the complexity of traffic judges' decisions |
title_sort |
on the complexity of traffic judges' decisions |
publisher |
Society for Judgment and Decision Making |
series |
Judgment and Decision Making |
issn |
1930-2975 |
publishDate |
2008-12-01 |
description |
Professional judges in traffic courts sentence many hundreds of offenders per year. Using 639 case files from archives, we compared the Matching Heuristic (MH) to compensatory, weighing algorithms (WM). We modeled and cross validated the models on different subsets of the data, and took several other methodological precautions such as allowing each model to select the optimal number of variables and ordering and weighing the variables in accordance to different logics. We did not reproduce the finding by Dhami (2003), who found the MH to be superior to a compensatory algorithm in modeling bail-granting decisions. These simulations brought out the inner logic of the two family of models, showing what combination of parameters works best. It remains remarkable that using only a fraction of the variables and combining them non-compensatorily, MH obtained nearly as good a fit as the weighing method. |
topic |
bounded rationality; judgments; frugal;take-the-best; decision-making; simple heuristics; models; matchingheuristic. |
url |
http://journal.sjdm.org/06154/jdm06154.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT davidleiser onthecomplexityoftrafficjudgesdecisions AT dovronschatzberg onthecomplexityoftrafficjudgesdecisions |
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