Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea
Abstract Background Cholera is endemic in Guinea, having suffered consecutive outbreaks from 2004 to 2008 followed by a lull until the 2012 epidemic. Here we describe the temporal-spatial and behavioural characteristics of cholera cases in Conakry during a three-year period, including the large-scal...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
BMC
2018-02-01
|
Series: | Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-018-0393-8 |
id |
doaj-db4513b0e7c04249bafd8707c4412b13 |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-db4513b0e7c04249bafd8707c4412b132020-11-24T21:44:23ZengBMCInfectious Diseases of Poverty2049-99572018-02-017111010.1186/s40249-018-0393-8Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, GuineaAlexandre Blake0Veronique Sarr Keita1Delphine Sauvageot2Mamadou Saliou3Berthe Marie Njanpop4Fode Sory5Bertrand Sudre6Koivogui Lamine7Martin Mengel8Bradford D. Gessner9Keita Sakoba10Agence de Médecine PréventiveDivision Prévention et Lutte contre la Maladie (DPLM), Ministère de la santé Publique et de l’Hygiène Publique ConakryAgence de Médecine PréventiveInstitut National de Sante Publique (INSP)Agence de Médecine PréventiveDivision Prévention et Lutte contre la Maladie (DPLM), Ministère de la santé Publique et de l’Hygiène Publique ConakryFranche-Comté university (UMR 6249 chrono-environnement)Institut National de Sante Publique (INSP)Agence de Médecine PréventiveAgence de Médecine PréventiveDivision Prévention et Lutte contre la Maladie (DPLM), Ministère de la santé Publique et de l’Hygiène Publique ConakryAbstract Background Cholera is endemic in Guinea, having suffered consecutive outbreaks from 2004 to 2008 followed by a lull until the 2012 epidemic. Here we describe the temporal-spatial and behavioural characteristics of cholera cases in Conakry during a three-year period, including the large-scale 2012 epidemic. Methods We used the national and African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol) surveillance data collected from every cholera treatment centre in Conakry city from August 2011 to December 2013. The prevalence of suspect and confirmed cholera cases, the case fatality ratio (CFR), and the factors associated with suspected cholera were described according to three periods: pre-epidemic (A), epidemic 2012 (B) and post epidemic (C). Weekly attack rates and temporal-spatial clustering were calculated at municipality level for period B. Cholera was confirmed by culture at the cholera national reference laboratory. Results A total of 4559 suspect cases were reported: 66, 4437, and 66 suspect cases in periods A, B and C, respectively. Among the 204 suspect cases with culture results available, 6%, 60%, and 70% were confirmed in periods A, B, and C, respectively. With 0.3%, the CFR was significantly lower in period B than in periods A (7.6%) and C (7.1%). The overall attack rate was 0.28% in period B, ranging from 0.17% to 0.31% across municipalities. Concomitantly, a cluster of cases was identified in two districts in the northern part of Conakry. At 14%, rice water stools were less frequent in period A than in period B and C (78% and 84%). Dehydration (31% vs 94% and 89%) and coma (0.4% vs 3.1% and 2.9%) were lower during period B than in periods A and C. The treatment of drinking water was less frequent in period A, while there were more reports of recent travel in period C. Conclusions The epidemic dynamic and the sociological description of suspect cases before, during, and after the large-scale epidemic revealed that the Vibrio cholerae was already present before the epidemic. However, it appeared that infected individuals reacted differently in terms of disease severity as well as their access to treated water and travel habits. Such an in-depth description of cholera epidemics should be systematically carried out in cholera endemic settings in order to prioritize higher risk areas, identify transmission factors, and optimize preventive interventions.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-018-0393-8CholeraSpace-time clusteringGuinea |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Alexandre Blake Veronique Sarr Keita Delphine Sauvageot Mamadou Saliou Berthe Marie Njanpop Fode Sory Bertrand Sudre Koivogui Lamine Martin Mengel Bradford D. Gessner Keita Sakoba |
spellingShingle |
Alexandre Blake Veronique Sarr Keita Delphine Sauvageot Mamadou Saliou Berthe Marie Njanpop Fode Sory Bertrand Sudre Koivogui Lamine Martin Mengel Bradford D. Gessner Keita Sakoba Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea Infectious Diseases of Poverty Cholera Space-time clustering Guinea |
author_facet |
Alexandre Blake Veronique Sarr Keita Delphine Sauvageot Mamadou Saliou Berthe Marie Njanpop Fode Sory Bertrand Sudre Koivogui Lamine Martin Mengel Bradford D. Gessner Keita Sakoba |
author_sort |
Alexandre Blake |
title |
Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea |
title_short |
Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea |
title_full |
Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea |
title_fullStr |
Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea |
title_sort |
temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the african mega-city of conakry, guinea |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
Infectious Diseases of Poverty |
issn |
2049-9957 |
publishDate |
2018-02-01 |
description |
Abstract Background Cholera is endemic in Guinea, having suffered consecutive outbreaks from 2004 to 2008 followed by a lull until the 2012 epidemic. Here we describe the temporal-spatial and behavioural characteristics of cholera cases in Conakry during a three-year period, including the large-scale 2012 epidemic. Methods We used the national and African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol) surveillance data collected from every cholera treatment centre in Conakry city from August 2011 to December 2013. The prevalence of suspect and confirmed cholera cases, the case fatality ratio (CFR), and the factors associated with suspected cholera were described according to three periods: pre-epidemic (A), epidemic 2012 (B) and post epidemic (C). Weekly attack rates and temporal-spatial clustering were calculated at municipality level for period B. Cholera was confirmed by culture at the cholera national reference laboratory. Results A total of 4559 suspect cases were reported: 66, 4437, and 66 suspect cases in periods A, B and C, respectively. Among the 204 suspect cases with culture results available, 6%, 60%, and 70% were confirmed in periods A, B, and C, respectively. With 0.3%, the CFR was significantly lower in period B than in periods A (7.6%) and C (7.1%). The overall attack rate was 0.28% in period B, ranging from 0.17% to 0.31% across municipalities. Concomitantly, a cluster of cases was identified in two districts in the northern part of Conakry. At 14%, rice water stools were less frequent in period A than in period B and C (78% and 84%). Dehydration (31% vs 94% and 89%) and coma (0.4% vs 3.1% and 2.9%) were lower during period B than in periods A and C. The treatment of drinking water was less frequent in period A, while there were more reports of recent travel in period C. Conclusions The epidemic dynamic and the sociological description of suspect cases before, during, and after the large-scale epidemic revealed that the Vibrio cholerae was already present before the epidemic. However, it appeared that infected individuals reacted differently in terms of disease severity as well as their access to treated water and travel habits. Such an in-depth description of cholera epidemics should be systematically carried out in cholera endemic settings in order to prioritize higher risk areas, identify transmission factors, and optimize preventive interventions. |
topic |
Cholera Space-time clustering Guinea |
url |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40249-018-0393-8 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT alexandreblake temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT veroniquesarrkeita temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT delphinesauvageot temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT mamadousaliou temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT berthemarienjanpop temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT fodesory temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT bertrandsudre temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT koivoguilamine temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT martinmengel temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT bradforddgessner temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea AT keitasakoba temporospatialdynamicsandbehaviouralpatternsof2012choleraepidemicintheafricanmegacityofconakryguinea |
_version_ |
1725910663012810752 |