Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030

Abstract Background Monitoring and reducing premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority of Agenda 2030. This study aimed to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and to project t...

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Main Authors: Deborah Carvalho Malta, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Maria Inês Schmidt, Renato Teixeira, Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes, Ísis Eloah Machado, Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez, Luisa Campos Caldeira Brant, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos, Bruno R Nascimento, Ewerton Cousin, Scott Glenn, Mohsen Naghavi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2020-09-01
Series:Population Health Metrics
Subjects:
Online Access:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12963-020-00216-1
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author Deborah Carvalho Malta
Bruce Bartholow Duncan
Maria Inês Schmidt
Renato Teixeira
Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro
Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes
Ísis Eloah Machado
Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez
Luisa Campos Caldeira Brant
Diego Augusto Santos Silva
Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos
Bruno R Nascimento
Ewerton Cousin
Scott Glenn
Mohsen Naghavi
spellingShingle Deborah Carvalho Malta
Bruce Bartholow Duncan
Maria Inês Schmidt
Renato Teixeira
Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro
Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes
Ísis Eloah Machado
Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez
Luisa Campos Caldeira Brant
Diego Augusto Santos Silva
Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos
Bruno R Nascimento
Ewerton Cousin
Scott Glenn
Mohsen Naghavi
Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030
Population Health Metrics
Global burden of disease
Non-communicable diseases
Mortality
Disability-adjusted life years
Brazil
Sustainable Development Goals
author_facet Deborah Carvalho Malta
Bruce Bartholow Duncan
Maria Inês Schmidt
Renato Teixeira
Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro
Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes
Ísis Eloah Machado
Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez
Luisa Campos Caldeira Brant
Diego Augusto Santos Silva
Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos
Bruno R Nascimento
Ewerton Cousin
Scott Glenn
Mohsen Naghavi
author_sort Deborah Carvalho Malta
title Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030
title_short Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030
title_full Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030
title_fullStr Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030
title_full_unstemmed Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030
title_sort trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030
publisher BMC
series Population Health Metrics
issn 1478-7954
publishDate 2020-09-01
description Abstract Background Monitoring and reducing premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority of Agenda 2030. This study aimed to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and to project those for 2030 as well as the risk factors (RFs) attributed deaths according to estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study. Methods We analyzed cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and diabetes, and compared the mortality rates in 1990 and 2017 for all of Brazil and states. The study used the definition of premature mortality (30–69 years) that is used by the World Health Organization. The number of deaths, mortality rates, DALYs, and years of life lost (YLL) were used to compare 1990 and 2017. We analyzed the YLL for NCDs attributable to RFs. Results There was a reduction of 35.3% from 509.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (1990) to 329.6 deaths/100,000 inhabitants due to NCDs in 2017. The DALY rate decreased by 33.6%, and the YLL rate decreased by 36.0%. There were reductions in NCDs rates in all 27 states. The main RFs related to premature deaths by NCDs in 2017 among women were high body mass index (BMI), dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and among men, dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, and high BMI. Trends in mortality rates due to NCDs declined during the study period; however, after 2015, the curve reversed, and rates fluctuated and tended to increase. Conclusion Our findings highlighted a decline in premature mortality rates from NCDs nationwide and in all states. There was a greater reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases, followed by respiratory diseases, and we observed a minor reduction for those from diabetes and neoplasms. The observed fluctuations in mortality rates over the last 3 years indicate that if no further action is taken, we may not achieve the NCD Sustainable Development Goals. These findings draw attention to the consequences of austerity measures in a socially unequal setting with great regional disparities in which the majority of the population is dependent on state social policies.
topic Global burden of disease
Non-communicable diseases
Mortality
Disability-adjusted life years
Brazil
Sustainable Development Goals
url http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12963-020-00216-1
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spelling doaj-dcb9c6d3503f44af86e8f03b6817ad602020-11-25T03:16:20ZengBMCPopulation Health Metrics1478-79542020-09-0118S111410.1186/s12963-020-00216-1Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030Deborah Carvalho Malta0Bruce Bartholow Duncan1Maria Inês Schmidt2Renato Teixeira3Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro4Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes5Ísis Eloah Machado6Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez7Luisa Campos Caldeira Brant8Diego Augusto Santos Silva9Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos10Bruno R Nascimento11Ewerton Cousin12Scott Glenn13Mohsen Naghavi14Nursing School, Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health, Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisPostgraduate Program in Epidemiology and Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulPostgraduate Program in Epidemiology and Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulSchool of Medicine, Graduate Program in Public Health, Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisSchool of Medicine, Hospital das Clínicas,Telehealth Center, Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisNursing School, Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health, Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisSchool of Medicine, Department of Family Medicine, Mental and Public Health, Universidade Federal de Ouro PretoNursing School, Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health, Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisSchool of Medicine, Hospital das Clínicas,Telehealth Center, Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisUniversidade Federal de Santa CatarinaFaculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas GeraisSchool of Medicine, Hospital das Clínicas,Telehealth Center, Universidade Federal de Minas GeraisPostgraduate Program in Epidemiology and Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonAbstract Background Monitoring and reducing premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority of Agenda 2030. This study aimed to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and to project those for 2030 as well as the risk factors (RFs) attributed deaths according to estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study. Methods We analyzed cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and diabetes, and compared the mortality rates in 1990 and 2017 for all of Brazil and states. The study used the definition of premature mortality (30–69 years) that is used by the World Health Organization. The number of deaths, mortality rates, DALYs, and years of life lost (YLL) were used to compare 1990 and 2017. We analyzed the YLL for NCDs attributable to RFs. Results There was a reduction of 35.3% from 509.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (1990) to 329.6 deaths/100,000 inhabitants due to NCDs in 2017. The DALY rate decreased by 33.6%, and the YLL rate decreased by 36.0%. There were reductions in NCDs rates in all 27 states. The main RFs related to premature deaths by NCDs in 2017 among women were high body mass index (BMI), dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and among men, dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, and high BMI. Trends in mortality rates due to NCDs declined during the study period; however, after 2015, the curve reversed, and rates fluctuated and tended to increase. Conclusion Our findings highlighted a decline in premature mortality rates from NCDs nationwide and in all states. There was a greater reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases, followed by respiratory diseases, and we observed a minor reduction for those from diabetes and neoplasms. The observed fluctuations in mortality rates over the last 3 years indicate that if no further action is taken, we may not achieve the NCD Sustainable Development Goals. These findings draw attention to the consequences of austerity measures in a socially unequal setting with great regional disparities in which the majority of the population is dependent on state social policies.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12963-020-00216-1Global burden of diseaseNon-communicable diseasesMortalityDisability-adjusted life yearsBrazilSustainable Development Goals