The Application of Fourier Residual Grey Verhulst and Grey Markov Model in Analyzing the Global ICT Development

• Main Authors: Shaghayegh Kordnoori, Hamidreza Mostafaei, Shirin Kordnoori
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University, Bucharest, Romania 2014-03-01
• Series: Hyperion Economic Journal
• Subjects: Grey Verhulst; Fourier modification; Grey Markov; ICT development
• Online Access: http://hej.hyperion.ro/articles/1(2)_2014/HEJ%20nr1(2)_2014_Y4Kordnooripdf.pdf

Grey theory deals with systems with inadequate, poor and uncertain information. Modeling against insufficient sample and saturated sequence, Grey Verhulst model has its particular perfection. Its modeling process is easy and high prediction accuracy can be achieved. In this paper, the application of a Grey Verhulst model in studying the global ICT development was presented; Moreover a new Grey Verhulst model and Fourier residual Grey Verhulst model were suggested to improve the forecasting accuracy. Data of the world fixed-telephone subscriptions which is one of ICT indicator from 2001 to 2010 were used as a forecasted example. Finally we increased the precision by employing the Grey Markov model which is the mixture of the GM(1,1) and a Markov model