Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes
Abstract The Paris Agreement has motivated rapid analysis differentiating changes in frequency/intensity of weather and climate extremes in 1.5 versus 2 °C warmer worlds. However, implications of these global warming levels on locations, spatial scales, and emergence timings of hot spots to extremes...
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doaj-dd9af0122f1342768bc33779d486ece92020-11-24T21:50:46ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Earth's Future2328-42772019-08-017895396610.1029/2019EF001202Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot ExtremesYang Chen0Baiquan Zhou1Panmao Zhai2Wilfran Moufouma‐Okia3State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaTechnical Support Unit, Working Group‐I, IPCC Université Paris Saclay Paris FranceAbstract The Paris Agreement has motivated rapid analysis differentiating changes in frequency/intensity of weather and climate extremes in 1.5 versus 2 °C warmer worlds. However, implications of these global warming levels on locations, spatial scales, and emergence timings of hot spots to extremes are more relevant to policy‐making but remain strikingly under‐addressed. Based on a bivariate definitional framework, we show that compared to 2 °C, the 1.5 °C target could avoid a transition of prevailing type of summertime hot extremes from daytime‐/nighttime‐only events to combined daytime‐nighttime hot extremes in approximately 18% of global continents and protect 14–26% of land areas from seeing over threefold‐to‐tenfold increases in occurrence of combined hot extremes. This half‐a‐degree reduction also matters for around 21% of global lands, mostly within the tropics, in constraining historically unprecedented combined hot extremes from becoming the new norm within just one to three decades ahead. By contrast, previous analyses based on univariate‐defined hot days substantially underestimate the magnitude, areal extent, and emergence rate of 0.5 °C‐caused aggravation of summertime hot extremes. These projected changes of bivariate‐classified hot extremes, therefore, underline not only the imperative but also the urgency of striving for the lower Paris target.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001202bivariate‐classified hot extremesParis Agreementtime of emergenceavoided risks |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Yang Chen Baiquan Zhou Panmao Zhai Wilfran Moufouma‐Okia |
spellingShingle |
Yang Chen Baiquan Zhou Panmao Zhai Wilfran Moufouma‐Okia Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes Earth's Future bivariate‐classified hot extremes Paris Agreement time of emergence avoided risks |
author_facet |
Yang Chen Baiquan Zhou Panmao Zhai Wilfran Moufouma‐Okia |
author_sort |
Yang Chen |
title |
Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes |
title_short |
Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes |
title_full |
Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes |
title_fullStr |
Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes |
title_sort |
half‐a‐degree matters for reducing and delaying global land exposure to combined daytime‐nighttime hot extremes |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
series |
Earth's Future |
issn |
2328-4277 |
publishDate |
2019-08-01 |
description |
Abstract The Paris Agreement has motivated rapid analysis differentiating changes in frequency/intensity of weather and climate extremes in 1.5 versus 2 °C warmer worlds. However, implications of these global warming levels on locations, spatial scales, and emergence timings of hot spots to extremes are more relevant to policy‐making but remain strikingly under‐addressed. Based on a bivariate definitional framework, we show that compared to 2 °C, the 1.5 °C target could avoid a transition of prevailing type of summertime hot extremes from daytime‐/nighttime‐only events to combined daytime‐nighttime hot extremes in approximately 18% of global continents and protect 14–26% of land areas from seeing over threefold‐to‐tenfold increases in occurrence of combined hot extremes. This half‐a‐degree reduction also matters for around 21% of global lands, mostly within the tropics, in constraining historically unprecedented combined hot extremes from becoming the new norm within just one to three decades ahead. By contrast, previous analyses based on univariate‐defined hot days substantially underestimate the magnitude, areal extent, and emergence rate of 0.5 °C‐caused aggravation of summertime hot extremes. These projected changes of bivariate‐classified hot extremes, therefore, underline not only the imperative but also the urgency of striving for the lower Paris target. |
topic |
bivariate‐classified hot extremes Paris Agreement time of emergence avoided risks |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001202 |
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