A Dynamic, Multivariate Sustainability Measure for Robust Analysis of Water Management under Climate and Demand Uncertainty in an Arid Environment
Considering water resource scarcity and uncertainty in climate and demand futures, decision-makers require techniques for sustainability analysis in resource management. Through unclear definitions of “sustainability”, however, traditional indices for resource evaluation propose options of limited f...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
MDPI AG
2015-10-01
|
Series: | Water |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/11/5928 |
id |
doaj-dfa807d404b3441f97c1aa1d4c936f1d |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-dfa807d404b3441f97c1aa1d4c936f1d2020-11-24T23:48:01ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412015-10-017115928595810.3390/w7115928w7115928A Dynamic, Multivariate Sustainability Measure for Robust Analysis of Water Management under Climate and Demand Uncertainty in an Arid EnvironmentChristian Hunter0Jorge Gironás1Diogo Bolster2Christos A. Karavitis3Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Vicuña Mackenna, Santiago 4860, ChileDepartamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Vicuña Mackenna, Santiago 4860, ChileCivil Engineering, Environmental and Earth Sciences Department (CEEES), University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USADepartment of Natural Resources Management & Agricultural Engineering, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, Athens 118 55, GreeceConsidering water resource scarcity and uncertainty in climate and demand futures, decision-makers require techniques for sustainability analysis in resource management. Through unclear definitions of “sustainability”, however, traditional indices for resource evaluation propose options of limited flexibility by adopting static climate and demand scenarios, limiting analysis variables to a particular water-use group and time. This work proposes a robust, multivariate, dynamic sustainability evaluation technique and corresponding performance indicator called Measure of Sustainability (MoS) for resource management that is more adapted to withstand future parameter variation. The range of potential future climate and demand scenarios is simulated through a calibrated hydrological model of Copiapó, Chile, a case study example of an arid watershed under extreme natural and anthropogenic water stresses. Comparing MoS and cost rankings of proposed water management schemes, this paper determines that the traditional evaluation method not only underestimates future water deficits, but also espouses solutions without considering uncertainties in supply and demand. Given the uncertainty of the future and the dependence of resources upon climate and market trajectories, the MoS methodology proposes solutions that, while perhaps are not the most optimal, are robust to variations in future parameter values and are thus the best water management options in a stochastic natural world.http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/11/5928sustainability assessmentarid zone hydrologywatershed modelinggroundwaterwater supplysystem analysispredicative modelingclimate changesociohydrologyvulnerability |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Christian Hunter Jorge Gironás Diogo Bolster Christos A. Karavitis |
spellingShingle |
Christian Hunter Jorge Gironás Diogo Bolster Christos A. Karavitis A Dynamic, Multivariate Sustainability Measure for Robust Analysis of Water Management under Climate and Demand Uncertainty in an Arid Environment Water sustainability assessment arid zone hydrology watershed modeling groundwater water supply system analysis predicative modeling climate change sociohydrology vulnerability |
author_facet |
Christian Hunter Jorge Gironás Diogo Bolster Christos A. Karavitis |
author_sort |
Christian Hunter |
title |
A Dynamic, Multivariate Sustainability Measure for Robust Analysis of Water Management under Climate and Demand Uncertainty in an Arid Environment |
title_short |
A Dynamic, Multivariate Sustainability Measure for Robust Analysis of Water Management under Climate and Demand Uncertainty in an Arid Environment |
title_full |
A Dynamic, Multivariate Sustainability Measure for Robust Analysis of Water Management under Climate and Demand Uncertainty in an Arid Environment |
title_fullStr |
A Dynamic, Multivariate Sustainability Measure for Robust Analysis of Water Management under Climate and Demand Uncertainty in an Arid Environment |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Dynamic, Multivariate Sustainability Measure for Robust Analysis of Water Management under Climate and Demand Uncertainty in an Arid Environment |
title_sort |
dynamic, multivariate sustainability measure for robust analysis of water management under climate and demand uncertainty in an arid environment |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Water |
issn |
2073-4441 |
publishDate |
2015-10-01 |
description |
Considering water resource scarcity and uncertainty in climate and demand futures, decision-makers require techniques for sustainability analysis in resource management. Through unclear definitions of “sustainability”, however, traditional indices for resource evaluation propose options of limited flexibility by adopting static climate and demand scenarios, limiting analysis variables to a particular water-use group and time. This work proposes a robust, multivariate, dynamic sustainability evaluation technique and corresponding performance indicator called Measure of Sustainability (MoS) for resource management that is more adapted to withstand future parameter variation. The range of potential future climate and demand scenarios is simulated through a calibrated hydrological model of Copiapó, Chile, a case study example of an arid watershed under extreme natural and anthropogenic water stresses. Comparing MoS and cost rankings of proposed water management schemes, this paper determines that the traditional evaluation method not only underestimates future water deficits, but also espouses solutions without considering uncertainties in supply and demand. Given the uncertainty of the future and the dependence of resources upon climate and market trajectories, the MoS methodology proposes solutions that, while perhaps are not the most optimal, are robust to variations in future parameter values and are thus the best water management options in a stochastic natural world. |
topic |
sustainability assessment arid zone hydrology watershed modeling groundwater water supply system analysis predicative modeling climate change sociohydrology vulnerability |
url |
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/11/5928 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT christianhunter adynamicmultivariatesustainabilitymeasureforrobustanalysisofwatermanagementunderclimateanddemanduncertaintyinanaridenvironment AT jorgegironas adynamicmultivariatesustainabilitymeasureforrobustanalysisofwatermanagementunderclimateanddemanduncertaintyinanaridenvironment AT diogobolster adynamicmultivariatesustainabilitymeasureforrobustanalysisofwatermanagementunderclimateanddemanduncertaintyinanaridenvironment AT christosakaravitis adynamicmultivariatesustainabilitymeasureforrobustanalysisofwatermanagementunderclimateanddemanduncertaintyinanaridenvironment AT christianhunter dynamicmultivariatesustainabilitymeasureforrobustanalysisofwatermanagementunderclimateanddemanduncertaintyinanaridenvironment AT jorgegironas dynamicmultivariatesustainabilitymeasureforrobustanalysisofwatermanagementunderclimateanddemanduncertaintyinanaridenvironment AT diogobolster dynamicmultivariatesustainabilitymeasureforrobustanalysisofwatermanagementunderclimateanddemanduncertaintyinanaridenvironment AT christosakaravitis dynamicmultivariatesustainabilitymeasureforrobustanalysisofwatermanagementunderclimateanddemanduncertaintyinanaridenvironment |
_version_ |
1725487626923802624 |