Facilitating Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change: A Spatially Specific Synthesis of 125 Species for Habitat Changes and Assisted Migration over the Eastern United States

• Main Authors: Louis R. Iverson, Anantha M. Prasad, Matthew P. Peters, Stephen N. Matthews
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2019-11-01
• Series: Forests
• Subjects: suitable habitat; migration; dispersal model; range shifts; decision-support tools; adaptive management; distrib-ii; shift
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/10/11/989

We modeled and combined outputs for 125 tree species for the eastern United States, using habitat suitability and colonization potential models along with an evaluation of adaptation traits. These outputs allowed, for the first time, the compilation of tree species’ current and future potential for each unit of 55 national forests and grasslands and 469 1 × 1 degree grids across the eastern United States. A habitat suitability model, a migration simulation model, and an assessment based on biological and disturbance factors were used with United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data to evaluate species potential to migrate or infill naturally into suitable habitats over the next 100 years. We describe a suite of variables, by species, for each unique geographic unit, packaged as summary tables describing current abundance, potential future change in suitable habitat, adaptability, and capability to cope with the changing climate, and colonization likelihood over 100 years. This resulting synthesis and summation effort, culminating over two decades of work, provides a detailed data set that incorporates habitat quality, land cover, and dispersal potential, spatially constrained, for nearly all the tree species of the eastern United States. These tables and maps provide an estimate of potential species trends out 100 years, intended to deliver managers and publics with practical tools to reduce the vast set of decisions before them as they proactively manage tree species in the face of climate change.