Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects
Abstract Objectives: To assess levels of numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects of ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Methods: Population projections for 15 Australian regions were created by a multi‐state cohort‐component model. Results: The older (45‐plus) p...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.13001 |
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doaj-e34b3977c16b4dcebd0f87e2676103ba2020-11-25T03:41:06ZengWileyAustralian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health1326-02001753-64052020-08-0144427127810.1111/1753-6405.13001Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspectsJeromey B. Temple0Tom Wilson1Andrew Taylor2Margaret Kelaher3Sandra Eades4Melbourne School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne VictoriaMelbourne School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne VictoriaNorthern Institute, College of Indigenous Futures, Arts and Society Charles Darwin University Northern TerritoryMelbourne School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne VictoriaMelbourne School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne VictoriaAbstract Objectives: To assess levels of numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects of ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Methods: Population projections for 15 Australian regions were created by a multi‐state cohort‐component model. Results: The older (45‐plus) population grew from 29,815 in 1986 to 167,259 in 2016. In the subsequent 30 years, we project growth to 448,785 people. Growth rates of the older population vary: from 200% in the 60–64‐year‐old group to 800% growth in the 85‐plus age group by mid‐century. This strong numerical ageing is reflected in a shift in structural ageing by about six percentage points. Selected areas outside of capital cities are structurally older than many cities. Numerical ageing is strongest in capital cities and New South Wales. Cohort flow is the primary driver of ageing. Conclusions: Numerical and structural ageing is projected to increase significantly to mid‐century with important spatial variations. Population ageing is largely irreversible. Implications for public health: High numerical growth in the older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population poses implications for increased demand for a range of health and care services. Variations in spatial and timing aspects of ageing indicate demand will peak earlier in some geographical locations relative to others.https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.13001Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanderpopulation projectionspopulation ageingIndigenous ageing |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Jeromey B. Temple Tom Wilson Andrew Taylor Margaret Kelaher Sandra Eades |
spellingShingle |
Jeromey B. Temple Tom Wilson Andrew Taylor Margaret Kelaher Sandra Eades Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population projections population ageing Indigenous ageing |
author_facet |
Jeromey B. Temple Tom Wilson Andrew Taylor Margaret Kelaher Sandra Eades |
author_sort |
Jeromey B. Temple |
title |
Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects |
title_short |
Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects |
title_full |
Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects |
title_fullStr |
Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects |
title_sort |
ageing of the aboriginal and torres strait islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects |
publisher |
Wiley |
series |
Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health |
issn |
1326-0200 1753-6405 |
publishDate |
2020-08-01 |
description |
Abstract Objectives: To assess levels of numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects of ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Methods: Population projections for 15 Australian regions were created by a multi‐state cohort‐component model. Results: The older (45‐plus) population grew from 29,815 in 1986 to 167,259 in 2016. In the subsequent 30 years, we project growth to 448,785 people. Growth rates of the older population vary: from 200% in the 60–64‐year‐old group to 800% growth in the 85‐plus age group by mid‐century. This strong numerical ageing is reflected in a shift in structural ageing by about six percentage points. Selected areas outside of capital cities are structurally older than many cities. Numerical ageing is strongest in capital cities and New South Wales. Cohort flow is the primary driver of ageing. Conclusions: Numerical and structural ageing is projected to increase significantly to mid‐century with important spatial variations. Population ageing is largely irreversible. Implications for public health: High numerical growth in the older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population poses implications for increased demand for a range of health and care services. Variations in spatial and timing aspects of ageing indicate demand will peak earlier in some geographical locations relative to others. |
topic |
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population projections population ageing Indigenous ageing |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.13001 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT jeromeybtemple ageingoftheaboriginalandtorresstraitislanderpopulationnumericalstructuraltimingandspatialaspects AT tomwilson ageingoftheaboriginalandtorresstraitislanderpopulationnumericalstructuraltimingandspatialaspects AT andrewtaylor ageingoftheaboriginalandtorresstraitislanderpopulationnumericalstructuraltimingandspatialaspects AT margaretkelaher ageingoftheaboriginalandtorresstraitislanderpopulationnumericalstructuraltimingandspatialaspects AT sandraeades ageingoftheaboriginalandtorresstraitislanderpopulationnumericalstructuraltimingandspatialaspects |
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