Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0
Abstract GFDL's new CM4.0 climate model has high transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities near the middle of the upper half of CMIP5 models. The CMIP5 models have been criticized for excessive sensitivity based on observations of present‐day warming and heat uptake and estimates of radia...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001838 |
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doaj-e3e5117ad2b9460c9f7f46ebc3f77f772021-04-08T18:46:33ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems1942-24662020-01-01121n/an/a10.1029/2019MS001838Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0M. Winton0A. Adcroft1J. P. Dunne2I. M. Held3E. Shevliakova4M. Zhao5H. Guo6W. Hurlin7J. Krasting8T. Knutson9D. Paynter10L. G. Silvers11R. Zhang12GFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USAProgram in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Princeton University Princeton NJ USAGFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USAProgram in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Princeton University Princeton NJ USAGFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USAGFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USAGFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USAGFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USAGFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USAGFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USAGFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USACooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System Princeton University Princeton NJ USAGFDL/NOAA Princeton NJ USAAbstract GFDL's new CM4.0 climate model has high transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities near the middle of the upper half of CMIP5 models. The CMIP5 models have been criticized for excessive sensitivity based on observations of present‐day warming and heat uptake and estimates of radiative forcing. An ensemble of historical simulations with CM4.0 produces warming and heat uptake that are consistent with these observations under forcing that is at the middle of the assessed distribution. Energy budget‐based methods for estimating sensitivities based on these quantities underestimate CM4.0's sensitivities when applied to its historical simulations. However, we argue using a simple attribution procedure that CM4.0's warming evolution indicates excessive transient sensitivity to greenhouse gases. This excessive sensitivity is offset prior to recent decades by excessive response to aerosol and land use changes.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001838 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
M. Winton A. Adcroft J. P. Dunne I. M. Held E. Shevliakova M. Zhao H. Guo W. Hurlin J. Krasting T. Knutson D. Paynter L. G. Silvers R. Zhang |
spellingShingle |
M. Winton A. Adcroft J. P. Dunne I. M. Held E. Shevliakova M. Zhao H. Guo W. Hurlin J. Krasting T. Knutson D. Paynter L. G. Silvers R. Zhang Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
author_facet |
M. Winton A. Adcroft J. P. Dunne I. M. Held E. Shevliakova M. Zhao H. Guo W. Hurlin J. Krasting T. Knutson D. Paynter L. G. Silvers R. Zhang |
author_sort |
M. Winton |
title |
Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0 |
title_short |
Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0 |
title_full |
Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0 |
title_fullStr |
Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Sensitivity of GFDL's CM4.0 |
title_sort |
climate sensitivity of gfdl's cm4.0 |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
series |
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
issn |
1942-2466 |
publishDate |
2020-01-01 |
description |
Abstract GFDL's new CM4.0 climate model has high transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities near the middle of the upper half of CMIP5 models. The CMIP5 models have been criticized for excessive sensitivity based on observations of present‐day warming and heat uptake and estimates of radiative forcing. An ensemble of historical simulations with CM4.0 produces warming and heat uptake that are consistent with these observations under forcing that is at the middle of the assessed distribution. Energy budget‐based methods for estimating sensitivities based on these quantities underestimate CM4.0's sensitivities when applied to its historical simulations. However, we argue using a simple attribution procedure that CM4.0's warming evolution indicates excessive transient sensitivity to greenhouse gases. This excessive sensitivity is offset prior to recent decades by excessive response to aerosol and land use changes. |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001838 |
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