Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea
Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their unc...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2019-03-01
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Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00046/full |
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Article |
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DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
H. E. Markus Meier H. E. Markus Meier Moa Edman Kari Eilola Manja Placke Thomas Neumann Helén C. Andersson Sandra-Esther Brunnabend Christian Dieterich Claudia Frauen René Friedland Matthias Gröger Bo G. Gustafsson Bo G. Gustafsson Erik Gustafsson Alexey Isaev Madline Kniebusch Ivan Kuznetsov Bärbel Müller-Karulis Michael Naumann Anders Omstedt Vladimir Ryabchenko Sofia Saraiva Oleg P. Savchuk |
spellingShingle |
H. E. Markus Meier H. E. Markus Meier Moa Edman Kari Eilola Manja Placke Thomas Neumann Helén C. Andersson Sandra-Esther Brunnabend Christian Dieterich Claudia Frauen René Friedland Matthias Gröger Bo G. Gustafsson Bo G. Gustafsson Erik Gustafsson Alexey Isaev Madline Kniebusch Ivan Kuznetsov Bärbel Müller-Karulis Michael Naumann Anders Omstedt Vladimir Ryabchenko Sofia Saraiva Oleg P. Savchuk Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea Frontiers in Marine Science Baltic Sea nutrients eutrophication climate change future projections uncertainties |
author_facet |
H. E. Markus Meier H. E. Markus Meier Moa Edman Kari Eilola Manja Placke Thomas Neumann Helén C. Andersson Sandra-Esther Brunnabend Christian Dieterich Claudia Frauen René Friedland Matthias Gröger Bo G. Gustafsson Bo G. Gustafsson Erik Gustafsson Alexey Isaev Madline Kniebusch Ivan Kuznetsov Bärbel Müller-Karulis Michael Naumann Anders Omstedt Vladimir Ryabchenko Sofia Saraiva Oleg P. Savchuk |
author_sort |
H. E. Markus Meier |
title |
Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea |
title_short |
Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea |
title_full |
Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea |
title_sort |
assessment of uncertainties in scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the baltic sea |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
series |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
issn |
2296-7745 |
publishDate |
2019-03-01 |
description |
Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended. |
topic |
Baltic Sea nutrients eutrophication climate change future projections uncertainties |
url |
https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00046/full |
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doaj-e3f980678adf4861838764c7022e6b372020-11-24T22:06:36ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452019-03-01610.3389/fmars.2019.00046420055Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic SeaH. E. Markus Meier0H. E. Markus Meier1Moa Edman2Kari Eilola3Manja Placke4Thomas Neumann5Helén C. Andersson6Sandra-Esther Brunnabend7Christian Dieterich8Claudia Frauen9René Friedland10Matthias Gröger11Bo G. Gustafsson12Bo G. Gustafsson13Erik Gustafsson14Alexey Isaev15Madline Kniebusch16Ivan Kuznetsov17Bärbel Müller-Karulis18Michael Naumann19Anders Omstedt20Vladimir Ryabchenko21Sofia Saraiva22Oleg P. Savchuk23Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, GermanyDepartment of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, SwedenDepartment of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, SwedenDepartment of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, SwedenDepartment of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, GermanyDepartment of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, GermanyDepartment of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, SwedenDepartment of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, GermanyDepartment of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, SwedenDepartment of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, GermanyDepartment of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, GermanyDepartment of Research and Development, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, SwedenBaltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenTvärminne Zoological Station, University of Helsinki, Hanko, FinlandBaltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenShirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaDepartment of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, GermanyInstitute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, GermanyBaltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, GermanyDepartment of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, SwedenShirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaMARETEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, PortugalBaltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenFollowing earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00046/fullBaltic Seanutrientseutrophicationclimate changefuture projectionsuncertainties |