Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at Intersections
Pedestrian injury in crashes at intersections often results from complex interaction among various factors. The factor identification is a critical task for understanding the causes and improving the pedestrian safety. A total of 2,614 crash records at signalized and non-signalized intersections wer...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences
2020-07-01
|
Series: | Promet (Zagreb) |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/3428 |
id |
doaj-e5915b87fb474771bda4171f3cade41e |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-e5915b87fb474771bda4171f3cade41e2020-11-25T03:25:53ZengUniversity of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic SciencesPromet (Zagreb)0353-53201848-40692020-07-0132455957110.7307/ptt.v32i4.34283428Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at IntersectionsXi Lu0Zhuanglin Ma1Steven I-Jy Chien2Ying Xiong3China Academy of Transportation Science, MOTChang’an University, College of Transportation EngineeringNew Jersey Institute of Technology, Chang'an UniversityXi’an Traffic Information CenterPedestrian injury in crashes at intersections often results from complex interaction among various factors. The factor identification is a critical task for understanding the causes and improving the pedestrian safety. A total of 2,614 crash records at signalized and non-signalized intersections were applied. A Partial Proportional Odds (PPO) model was developed to examine the factors influencing Pedestrian Injury Severity (PIS) because it can accommodate the ordered response nature of injury severity. An elasticity analysis was conducted to quantify the marginal effects of contributing factors on the likelihood of PIS. For signalized intersections, seven explanatory variables significantly affect the likelihood of PIS, in which five explanatory variables violate the Proportional Odds Assumption (POA). Local driver, truck, holiday, clear weather, and hit-and-run lead to higher likelihood of severer PIS. For non-signalized intersections, six explanatory variables were found significant to the PIS, in which three explanatory variables violate the POA. Young and adult drivers, senior pedestrian, bus/van, divided road, holiday, and darkness tend to increase the likelihood of severer PIS. The vehicles of large size and heavy weight (e.g. truck, bus/van) are significant factors to the PIS at both signalized and non-signalized intersections. The proposed PPO model has demonstrated its effectiveness in identifying the effects of contributing factors on the PIS.https://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/3428pedestriansafetycrash injury severityintersectionpartial proportional odds model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Xi Lu Zhuanglin Ma Steven I-Jy Chien Ying Xiong |
spellingShingle |
Xi Lu Zhuanglin Ma Steven I-Jy Chien Ying Xiong Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at Intersections Promet (Zagreb) pedestrian safety crash injury severity intersection partial proportional odds model |
author_facet |
Xi Lu Zhuanglin Ma Steven I-Jy Chien Ying Xiong |
author_sort |
Xi Lu |
title |
Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at Intersections |
title_short |
Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at Intersections |
title_full |
Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at Intersections |
title_fullStr |
Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at Intersections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at Intersections |
title_sort |
development of a partial proportional odds model for pedestrian injury severity at intersections |
publisher |
University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences |
series |
Promet (Zagreb) |
issn |
0353-5320 1848-4069 |
publishDate |
2020-07-01 |
description |
Pedestrian injury in crashes at intersections often results from complex interaction among various factors. The factor identification is a critical task for understanding the causes and improving the pedestrian safety. A total of 2,614 crash records at signalized and non-signalized intersections were applied. A Partial Proportional Odds (PPO) model was developed to examine the factors influencing Pedestrian Injury Severity (PIS) because it can accommodate the ordered response nature of injury severity. An elasticity analysis was conducted to quantify the marginal effects of contributing factors on the likelihood of PIS. For signalized intersections, seven explanatory variables significantly affect the likelihood of PIS, in which five explanatory variables violate the Proportional Odds Assumption (POA). Local driver, truck, holiday, clear weather, and hit-and-run lead to higher likelihood of severer PIS. For non-signalized intersections, six explanatory variables were found significant to the PIS, in which three explanatory variables violate the POA. Young and adult drivers, senior pedestrian, bus/van, divided road, holiday, and darkness tend to increase the likelihood of severer PIS. The vehicles of large size and heavy weight (e.g. truck, bus/van) are significant factors to the PIS at both signalized and non-signalized intersections. The proposed PPO model has demonstrated its effectiveness in identifying the effects of contributing factors on the PIS. |
topic |
pedestrian safety crash injury severity intersection partial proportional odds model |
url |
https://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/3428 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT xilu developmentofapartialproportionaloddsmodelforpedestrianinjuryseverityatintersections AT zhuanglinma developmentofapartialproportionaloddsmodelforpedestrianinjuryseverityatintersections AT stevenijychien developmentofapartialproportionaloddsmodelforpedestrianinjuryseverityatintersections AT yingxiong developmentofapartialproportionaloddsmodelforpedestrianinjuryseverityatintersections |
_version_ |
1724595032640454656 |