Evaluating the Effect of Financing Costs on PV Grid Parity by Applying a Probabilistic Methodology

• Main Authors: Carlos J. Sarasa-Maestro, Rodolfo Dufo-López, José L. Bernal-Agustín
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2019-01-01
• Series: Applied Sciences
• Subjects: photovoltaic (PV) tariffs; remuneration policies; grid parity
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/9/3/425

This paper presents a study that analyses the effect of financing costs on grid parity in photovoltaic (PV) installations by applying a probabilistic methodology. Three different case studies, located in Spain, have been considered, with 500 kW, 50 kW and 5 kW grid-connected PV generators. The technical and economic calculations were performed, considering the interest rate, yield across the Spanish geography, and PV module cost as parameters. The Monte Carlo method was applied to consider the full probabilistic range of values given to the different variables. The goal of this study was to determine, for the studied cases, the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) and the internal rate of return by considering realistic values of the variables. A success rate parameter was calculated, which determined the likelihood of the number of times that the LCOE was below the retail cost of electricity. All the cases were evaluated by applying 10,000 iterations, considering the standard deviations and means defined.