Modeling Post-Fire Mortality in Pure and Mixed Forest Stands in Portugal—A Forest Planning-Oriented Model
Assessing impacts of management strategies may allow designing more resistant forests to wildfires. Planning-oriented models to predict the effect of stand structure and forest composition on mortality for supporting fire-smart management decisions, and allowing its inclusion in forest management op...
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doaj-e7a45418cd0d4cfe9bf56e273eefeda82020-11-24T22:51:21ZengMDPI AGSustainability2071-10502017-03-019339010.3390/su9030390su9030390Modeling Post-Fire Mortality in Pure and Mixed Forest Stands in Portugal—A Forest Planning-Oriented ModelBrigite Botequim0Manuel Arias-Rodil1Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo2Andreia Silva3Susete Marques4José G. Borges5Maria Manuela Oliveira6Margarida Tomé7Forest Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, PortugalUnidad de Gestión Forestal Sostenible (UXFS), Departamento de Ingeniería Agroforestal, Escuela Politécnica Superior Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Campus Universitario, 27002 Lugo, SpainForest Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, PortugalForest Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, PortugalForest Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, PortugalForest Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, PortugalResearch Centre in Mathematics and Applications, Colégio Luís Verney, University of Évora, Rua Romão Ramanho, 59, 7000-671 Évora, PortugalForest Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, PortugalAssessing impacts of management strategies may allow designing more resistant forests to wildfires. Planning-oriented models to predict the effect of stand structure and forest composition on mortality for supporting fire-smart management decisions, and allowing its inclusion in forest management optimization systems were developed. Post-fire mortality was modeled as a function of measurable forest inventory data and projections over time in 165 pure and 76 mixed forest stands in Portugal, collected by the 5th National Forest Inventory plots (NFI) plus other sample plots from ForFireS project, intercepted within 2006–2008 wildfire perimeters’ data. Presence and tree survival were obtained by examining 2450 trees from 16 species one year after the wildfire occurrence. A set of logistic regression models were developed under a three-stage modeling system: firstly multiple fixed-effects at stand-level that comprises a sub-model to predict mortality from wildfire; and another for the proportion of dead trees on stands killed by fire. At tree-level due to the nested structure of the data analyzed (trees within stands), a mixed-effect model was developed to estimate mortality among trees in a fire event. The results imply that the variation of tree mortality decreases when tree diameter at breast height increases. Moreover, the relative mortality increases with stand density, higher altitude and steeper slopes. In the same conditions, conifers are more prone to die than eucalyptus and broadleaves. Pure stands of broadleaves exhibit noticeably higher fire resistance than mixed stands of broadleaves and others species composition.http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/3/390pre and post-fire management decision-makingpost-fire mortalitystand structureforest heterogeneityfire-adapted silviculture |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Brigite Botequim Manuel Arias-Rodil Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo Andreia Silva Susete Marques José G. Borges Maria Manuela Oliveira Margarida Tomé |
spellingShingle |
Brigite Botequim Manuel Arias-Rodil Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo Andreia Silva Susete Marques José G. Borges Maria Manuela Oliveira Margarida Tomé Modeling Post-Fire Mortality in Pure and Mixed Forest Stands in Portugal—A Forest Planning-Oriented Model Sustainability pre and post-fire management decision-making post-fire mortality stand structure forest heterogeneity fire-adapted silviculture |
author_facet |
Brigite Botequim Manuel Arias-Rodil Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo Andreia Silva Susete Marques José G. Borges Maria Manuela Oliveira Margarida Tomé |
author_sort |
Brigite Botequim |
title |
Modeling Post-Fire Mortality in Pure and Mixed Forest Stands in Portugal—A Forest Planning-Oriented Model |
title_short |
Modeling Post-Fire Mortality in Pure and Mixed Forest Stands in Portugal—A Forest Planning-Oriented Model |
title_full |
Modeling Post-Fire Mortality in Pure and Mixed Forest Stands in Portugal—A Forest Planning-Oriented Model |
title_fullStr |
Modeling Post-Fire Mortality in Pure and Mixed Forest Stands in Portugal—A Forest Planning-Oriented Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling Post-Fire Mortality in Pure and Mixed Forest Stands in Portugal—A Forest Planning-Oriented Model |
title_sort |
modeling post-fire mortality in pure and mixed forest stands in portugal—a forest planning-oriented model |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Sustainability |
issn |
2071-1050 |
publishDate |
2017-03-01 |
description |
Assessing impacts of management strategies may allow designing more resistant forests to wildfires. Planning-oriented models to predict the effect of stand structure and forest composition on mortality for supporting fire-smart management decisions, and allowing its inclusion in forest management optimization systems were developed. Post-fire mortality was modeled as a function of measurable forest inventory data and projections over time in 165 pure and 76 mixed forest stands in Portugal, collected by the 5th National Forest Inventory plots (NFI) plus other sample plots from ForFireS project, intercepted within 2006–2008 wildfire perimeters’ data. Presence and tree survival were obtained by examining 2450 trees from 16 species one year after the wildfire occurrence. A set of logistic regression models were developed under a three-stage modeling system: firstly multiple fixed-effects at stand-level that comprises a sub-model to predict mortality from wildfire; and another for the proportion of dead trees on stands killed by fire. At tree-level due to the nested structure of the data analyzed (trees within stands), a mixed-effect model was developed to estimate mortality among trees in a fire event. The results imply that the variation of tree mortality decreases when tree diameter at breast height increases. Moreover, the relative mortality increases with stand density, higher altitude and steeper slopes. In the same conditions, conifers are more prone to die than eucalyptus and broadleaves. Pure stands of broadleaves exhibit noticeably higher fire resistance than mixed stands of broadleaves and others species composition. |
topic |
pre and post-fire management decision-making post-fire mortality stand structure forest heterogeneity fire-adapted silviculture |
url |
http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/3/390 |
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