Human mobility and poverty as key drivers of COVID-19 transmission and control
Abstract Background Applying heavy nationwide restrictions is a powerful method to curtail COVID-19 transmission but poses a significant humanitarian and economic crisis. Thus, it is essential to improve our understanding of COVID-19 transmission, and develop more focused and effective strategies. A...
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doaj-e86e060daf734edf9df44b3761b6035d2021-03-28T11:04:33ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582021-03-0121111310.1186/s12889-021-10561-xHuman mobility and poverty as key drivers of COVID-19 transmission and controlMatan Yechezkel0Amit Weiss1Idan Rejwan2Edan Shahmoon3Shachaf Ben-Gal4Dan Yamin5Laboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv UniversityLaboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv UniversityLaboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv UniversityLaboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv UniversityLaboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv UniversityLaboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tel Aviv UniversityAbstract Background Applying heavy nationwide restrictions is a powerful method to curtail COVID-19 transmission but poses a significant humanitarian and economic crisis. Thus, it is essential to improve our understanding of COVID-19 transmission, and develop more focused and effective strategies. As human mobility drives transmission, data from cellphone devices can be utilized to achieve these goals. Methods We analyzed aggregated and anonymized mobility data from the cell phone devices of> 3 million users between February 1, 2020, to May 16, 2020 — in which several movement restrictions were applied and lifted in Israel. We integrated these mobility patterns into age-, risk- and region-structured transmission model. Calibrated to coronavirus incidence in 250 regions covering Israel, we evaluated the efficacy and effectiveness in decreasing morbidity and mortality of applying localized and temporal lockdowns (stay-at-home order). Results Poorer regions exhibited lower and slower compliance with the restrictions. Our transmission model further indicated that individuals from impoverished areas were associated with high transmission rates. Considering a horizon of 1–3 years, we found that to reduce COVID-19 mortality, school closure has an adverse effect, while interventions focusing on the elderly are the most efficient. We also found that applying localized and temporal lockdowns during regional outbreaks reduces the overall mortality and morbidity compared to nationwide lockdowns. These trends were consistent across vast ranges of epidemiological parameters, and potential seasonal forcing. Conclusions More resources should be devoted to helping impoverished regions. Utilizing cellphone data despite being anonymized and aggregated can help policymakers worldwide identify hotspots and apply designated strategies against future COVID-19 outbreaks.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10561-xContact mixing patternsHuman mobilityCOVID-19Transmission modelSIR model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Matan Yechezkel Amit Weiss Idan Rejwan Edan Shahmoon Shachaf Ben-Gal Dan Yamin |
spellingShingle |
Matan Yechezkel Amit Weiss Idan Rejwan Edan Shahmoon Shachaf Ben-Gal Dan Yamin Human mobility and poverty as key drivers of COVID-19 transmission and control BMC Public Health Contact mixing patterns Human mobility COVID-19 Transmission model SIR model |
author_facet |
Matan Yechezkel Amit Weiss Idan Rejwan Edan Shahmoon Shachaf Ben-Gal Dan Yamin |
author_sort |
Matan Yechezkel |
title |
Human mobility and poverty as key drivers of COVID-19 transmission and control |
title_short |
Human mobility and poverty as key drivers of COVID-19 transmission and control |
title_full |
Human mobility and poverty as key drivers of COVID-19 transmission and control |
title_fullStr |
Human mobility and poverty as key drivers of COVID-19 transmission and control |
title_full_unstemmed |
Human mobility and poverty as key drivers of COVID-19 transmission and control |
title_sort |
human mobility and poverty as key drivers of covid-19 transmission and control |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
BMC Public Health |
issn |
1471-2458 |
publishDate |
2021-03-01 |
description |
Abstract Background Applying heavy nationwide restrictions is a powerful method to curtail COVID-19 transmission but poses a significant humanitarian and economic crisis. Thus, it is essential to improve our understanding of COVID-19 transmission, and develop more focused and effective strategies. As human mobility drives transmission, data from cellphone devices can be utilized to achieve these goals. Methods We analyzed aggregated and anonymized mobility data from the cell phone devices of> 3 million users between February 1, 2020, to May 16, 2020 — in which several movement restrictions were applied and lifted in Israel. We integrated these mobility patterns into age-, risk- and region-structured transmission model. Calibrated to coronavirus incidence in 250 regions covering Israel, we evaluated the efficacy and effectiveness in decreasing morbidity and mortality of applying localized and temporal lockdowns (stay-at-home order). Results Poorer regions exhibited lower and slower compliance with the restrictions. Our transmission model further indicated that individuals from impoverished areas were associated with high transmission rates. Considering a horizon of 1–3 years, we found that to reduce COVID-19 mortality, school closure has an adverse effect, while interventions focusing on the elderly are the most efficient. We also found that applying localized and temporal lockdowns during regional outbreaks reduces the overall mortality and morbidity compared to nationwide lockdowns. These trends were consistent across vast ranges of epidemiological parameters, and potential seasonal forcing. Conclusions More resources should be devoted to helping impoverished regions. Utilizing cellphone data despite being anonymized and aggregated can help policymakers worldwide identify hotspots and apply designated strategies against future COVID-19 outbreaks. |
topic |
Contact mixing patterns Human mobility COVID-19 Transmission model SIR model |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10561-x |
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