| Summary: | It has frequently been reported that species with strong niche conservatism will not be able to adapt to new climatic conditions, so they must migrate or go extinct. We have evaluated the shifts in climatic niche occupation of the species <i>Astrophytum coahuilense</i> and its potential distribution in Mexico. We understand niche occupation as the geographic zones with available habitats and with the presence of the species. To assess shifts in climatic niche occupation, we used niche overlap analysis, while potential distribution modeling was performed based on the principle of maximum entropy. The results indicate that this species presents a limited amplitude in its climate niche. This restriction of the climatic niche of <i>A. coahuilense</i> limits its ability to colonize new geographical areas with different climatic environments. On the other hand, the potential distribution models obtained from the present study allow us to identify potential zones based on the climatic requirements of the species. This information is important to identify high priority areas for the conservation of <i>A. coahuilense</i>.
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