Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin
This study evaluates the pattern of a nighttime climate index namely the tropical nights (Tmin ≥ 20ºC) during the 21st century in several different sized cities in the Carpathian Basin. For the modelling, MUKLIMO_3 microclimatic model and the cuboid statistical method were applied. In order to ensur...
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Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences
2021-04-01
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doaj-e91559aa70a64f1d9784ec3876e82be82021-04-07T07:40:26ZengResearch Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of SciencesHungarian Geographical Bulletin2064-50312064-51472021-04-01701193310.15201/hungeobull.70.1.24920Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian BasinTamás Gál0Nóra Skarbit1Gergely Molnár2János Unger3 Department of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, Szeged, HungaryDepartment of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, Szeged, HungaryDepartment of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, Szeged, HungaryDepartment of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, Szeged, HungaryThis study evaluates the pattern of a nighttime climate index namely the tropical nights (Tmin ≥ 20ºC) during the 21st century in several different sized cities in the Carpathian Basin. For the modelling, MUKLIMO_3 microclimatic model and the cuboid statistical method were applied. In order to ensure the proper representation of the thermal characteristics of an urban landscape, the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) system was used as landuse information. For this work, LCZ maps were produced using WUDAPT methodology. The climatic input of the model was the Carpatclim dataset for the reference period (1981–2010) and EURO-CORDEX regional model outputs for the future time periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). As results show, there would be a remarkable increase in the number of tropical nights along the century, and there is a clearly recognizable increase owing to urban landform. In the near past, the number of the index was 6–10 nights higher in the city core than the rural area where the number of this index was negligible. In the near future this urban-rural trend is the same, however, there is a slight increase (2–5 nights) in the index in city cores. At the end of the century, the results of the two emission scenarios become distinct. In the case of RCP4.5 the urban values are about 15–25 nights, what is less stressful compared to the 30–50 nights according to RCP8.5. The results clearly highlight that the effect of urban climate and climate change would cause serious risk for urban dwellers, therefore it is crucial to perform climate mitigation and adaptation actions on both global and urban scales.https://ojs.mtak.hu/index.php/hungeobull/article/view/4920climate changeurban climatelocal climate zonesurban climate modelling |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Tamás Gál Nóra Skarbit Gergely Molnár János Unger |
spellingShingle |
Tamás Gál Nóra Skarbit Gergely Molnár János Unger Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin Hungarian Geographical Bulletin climate change urban climate local climate zones urban climate modelling |
author_facet |
Tamás Gál Nóra Skarbit Gergely Molnár János Unger |
author_sort |
Tamás Gál |
title |
Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin |
title_short |
Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin |
title_full |
Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin |
title_fullStr |
Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin |
title_sort |
projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the carpathian basin |
publisher |
Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences |
series |
Hungarian Geographical Bulletin |
issn |
2064-5031 2064-5147 |
publishDate |
2021-04-01 |
description |
This study evaluates the pattern of a nighttime climate index namely the tropical nights (Tmin ≥ 20ºC) during the 21st century in several different sized cities in the Carpathian Basin. For the modelling, MUKLIMO_3 microclimatic model and the cuboid statistical method were applied. In order to ensure the proper representation of the thermal characteristics of an urban landscape, the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) system was used as landuse information. For this work, LCZ maps were produced using WUDAPT methodology. The climatic input of the model was the Carpatclim dataset for the reference period (1981–2010) and EURO-CORDEX regional model outputs for the future time periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). As results show, there would be a remarkable increase in the number of tropical nights along the century, and there is a clearly recognizable increase owing to urban landform. In the near past, the number of the index was 6–10 nights higher in the city core than the rural area where the number of this index was negligible. In the near future this urban-rural trend is the same, however, there is a slight increase (2–5 nights) in the index in city cores. At the end of the century, the results of the two emission scenarios become distinct. In the case of RCP4.5 the urban values are about 15–25 nights, what is less stressful compared to the 30–50 nights according to RCP8.5. The results clearly highlight that the effect of urban climate and climate change would cause serious risk for urban dwellers, therefore it is crucial to perform climate mitigation and adaptation actions on both global and urban scales. |
topic |
climate change urban climate local climate zones urban climate modelling |
url |
https://ojs.mtak.hu/index.php/hungeobull/article/view/4920 |
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