The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercompa...
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Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
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doaj-ecfade927dbb4952b512df5c904e093f2020-11-24T23:56:04ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032016-09-01993461348210.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6B. C. O'Neill0C. Tebaldi1D. P. van Vuuren2V. Eyring3P. Friedlingstein4G. Hurtt5R. Knutti6E. Kriegler7J.-F. Lamarque8J. Lowe9G. A. Meehl10R. Moss11K. Riahi12B. M. Sanderson13National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USANational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USANetherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, the NetherlandsDeutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, GermanyUniversity of Exeter, Exeter, UKUniversity of Maryland, College Park, MD, USAInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, GermanyNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USAMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USAPacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USAInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, AustriaNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USAProjections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3461/2016/gmd-9-3461-2016.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
B. C. O'Neill C. Tebaldi D. P. van Vuuren V. Eyring P. Friedlingstein G. Hurtt R. Knutti E. Kriegler J.-F. Lamarque J. Lowe G. A. Meehl R. Moss K. Riahi B. M. Sanderson |
spellingShingle |
B. C. O'Neill C. Tebaldi D. P. van Vuuren V. Eyring P. Friedlingstein G. Hurtt R. Knutti E. Kriegler J.-F. Lamarque J. Lowe G. A. Meehl R. Moss K. Riahi B. M. Sanderson The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 Geoscientific Model Development |
author_facet |
B. C. O'Neill C. Tebaldi D. P. van Vuuren V. Eyring P. Friedlingstein G. Hurtt R. Knutti E. Kriegler J.-F. Lamarque J. Lowe G. A. Meehl R. Moss K. Riahi B. M. Sanderson |
author_sort |
B. C. O'Neill |
title |
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 |
title_short |
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 |
title_full |
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 |
title_sort |
scenario model intercomparison project (scenariomip) for cmip6 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Geoscientific Model Development |
issn |
1991-959X 1991-9603 |
publishDate |
2016-09-01 |
description |
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in
improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing
societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison
Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate
projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use
changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we
describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to
other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a
larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated
studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and
impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an
important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the
same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted
science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based
analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and
aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of
scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative
contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal
variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st
century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address
these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight
alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition
ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined
by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for
variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate
questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit
emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models
will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with
the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and
output from the climate model projections made available and analyses
performed over the 2018–2020 period. |
url |
http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3461/2016/gmd-9-3461-2016.pdf |
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