Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate
Abstract Outputs from new state‐of‐the‐art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvement and enhancement of climate change projections information for Australia. Here we focus on three key aspects of CMIP6: what is new in these models, how the av...
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doaj-eda50ffd31264482a1a7085e934dc9822020-11-25T02:24:57ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Earth's Future2328-42772020-05-0185n/an/a10.1029/2019EF001469Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future ClimateM. R. Grose0S. Narsey1F. P. Delage2A. J. Dowdy3M. Bador4G. Boschat5C. Chung6J. B. Kajtar7S. Rauniyar8M. B. Freund9K. Lyu10H. Rashid11X. Zhang12S. Wales13C. Trenham14N. J. Holbrook15T. Cowan16L. Alexander17J. M. Arblaster18S. Power19CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Hobart AustraliaAustralian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne AustraliaAustralian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne AustraliaAustralian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne AustraliaUniversity of Melbourne and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Melbourne AustraliaAustralian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne AustraliaAustralian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne AustraliaInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes University of Tasmania Hobart AustraliaAustralian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne AustraliaCSIRO Agriculture and Food Hobart AustraliaCSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Hobart AustraliaCSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Melbourne AustraliaCSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Hobart AustraliaUniversity of Melbourne and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Melbourne AustraliaCSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Canberra AustraliaInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes University of Tasmania Hobart AustraliaAustralian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne AustraliaUniversity of Melbourne and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Melbourne AustraliaMonash University and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Melbourne AustraliaAustralian Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne AustraliaAbstract Outputs from new state‐of‐the‐art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvement and enhancement of climate change projections information for Australia. Here we focus on three key aspects of CMIP6: what is new in these models, how the available CMIP6 models evaluate compared to CMIP5, and their projections of the future Australian climate compared to CMIP5 focussing on the highest emissions scenario. The CMIP6 ensemble has several new features of relevance to policymakers and others, for example, the integrated matrix of socioeconomic and concentration pathways. The CMIP6 models show incremental improvements in the simulation of the climate in the Australian region, including a reduced equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias, slightly improved rainfall teleconnections with large‐scale climate drivers, improved representation of atmosphere and ocean extreme heat events, as well as dynamic sea level. However, important regional biases remain, evident in the excessive rainfall over the Maritime Continent and rainfall pattern biases in the nearby tropical convergence zones. Projections of Australian temperature and rainfall from the available CMIP6 ensemble broadly agree with those from CMIP5, except for a group of CMIP6 models with higher climate sensitivity and greater warming and increase in some extremes after 2050. CMIP6 rainfall projections are similar to CMIP5, but the ensemble examined has a narrower range of rainfall change in austral summer in Northern Australia and austral winter in Southern Australia. Overall, future national projections are likely to be similar to previous versions but perhaps with some areas of improved confidence and clarity.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469Climate changeregional projectionsCMIP6Australia |
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DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
M. R. Grose S. Narsey F. P. Delage A. J. Dowdy M. Bador G. Boschat C. Chung J. B. Kajtar S. Rauniyar M. B. Freund K. Lyu H. Rashid X. Zhang S. Wales C. Trenham N. J. Holbrook T. Cowan L. Alexander J. M. Arblaster S. Power |
spellingShingle |
M. R. Grose S. Narsey F. P. Delage A. J. Dowdy M. Bador G. Boschat C. Chung J. B. Kajtar S. Rauniyar M. B. Freund K. Lyu H. Rashid X. Zhang S. Wales C. Trenham N. J. Holbrook T. Cowan L. Alexander J. M. Arblaster S. Power Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate Earth's Future Climate change regional projections CMIP6 Australia |
author_facet |
M. R. Grose S. Narsey F. P. Delage A. J. Dowdy M. Bador G. Boschat C. Chung J. B. Kajtar S. Rauniyar M. B. Freund K. Lyu H. Rashid X. Zhang S. Wales C. Trenham N. J. Holbrook T. Cowan L. Alexander J. M. Arblaster S. Power |
author_sort |
M. R. Grose |
title |
Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate |
title_short |
Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate |
title_full |
Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate |
title_fullStr |
Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Insights From CMIP6 for Australia's Future Climate |
title_sort |
insights from cmip6 for australia's future climate |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
series |
Earth's Future |
issn |
2328-4277 |
publishDate |
2020-05-01 |
description |
Abstract Outputs from new state‐of‐the‐art climate models under the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) promise improvement and enhancement of climate change projections information for Australia. Here we focus on three key aspects of CMIP6: what is new in these models, how the available CMIP6 models evaluate compared to CMIP5, and their projections of the future Australian climate compared to CMIP5 focussing on the highest emissions scenario. The CMIP6 ensemble has several new features of relevance to policymakers and others, for example, the integrated matrix of socioeconomic and concentration pathways. The CMIP6 models show incremental improvements in the simulation of the climate in the Australian region, including a reduced equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias, slightly improved rainfall teleconnections with large‐scale climate drivers, improved representation of atmosphere and ocean extreme heat events, as well as dynamic sea level. However, important regional biases remain, evident in the excessive rainfall over the Maritime Continent and rainfall pattern biases in the nearby tropical convergence zones. Projections of Australian temperature and rainfall from the available CMIP6 ensemble broadly agree with those from CMIP5, except for a group of CMIP6 models with higher climate sensitivity and greater warming and increase in some extremes after 2050. CMIP6 rainfall projections are similar to CMIP5, but the ensemble examined has a narrower range of rainfall change in austral summer in Northern Australia and austral winter in Southern Australia. Overall, future national projections are likely to be similar to previous versions but perhaps with some areas of improved confidence and clarity. |
topic |
Climate change regional projections CMIP6 Australia |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469 |
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