The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks

This paper presents an effort pertaining to the simulation of the future production in Pakistan of different primary energy resources, i.e., coal, natural gas and crude oil, thereby constructing Hubbert peaks. In this context, the past 45 years’ production data of primary energy resources of Pakista...

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Main Authors: Syed Aziz Ur Rehman, Yanpeng Cai, Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, Gordhan Das Walasai, Izaz Ali Shah, Sharafat Ali
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2017-11-01
Series:Energies
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1858
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spelling doaj-ee39335f7a254a9988323c47d9c7059e2020-11-25T02:43:10ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732017-11-011011185810.3390/en10111858en10111858The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert PeaksSyed Aziz Ur Rehman0Yanpeng Cai1Nayyar Hussain Mirjat2Gordhan Das Walasai3Izaz Ali Shah4Sharafat Ali5State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Energy Environmental Engineering Research Group, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro 76062, PakistanDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah 67450, PakistanState Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaThis paper presents an effort pertaining to the simulation of the future production in Pakistan of different primary energy resources, i.e., coal, natural gas and crude oil, thereby constructing Hubbert peaks. In this context, the past 45 years’ production data of primary energy resources of Pakistan have been analyzed and simulated using a generic STELLA (Systems Thinking, Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation) model. The results show that the Hubbert peak of Pakistan’s crude oil production has been somehow already achieved in 2013, with the highest production of 4.52 million toe, which is 1.51 times the production in 2000. Similarly, the natural gas peak production is expected in 2024 with a production of 32.70 million toe which shall be 1.96-fold the extraction of the resource in the year 2000. On the other hand, the coal production in the country has been historically very low and with a constant production rate that is gradually picking up, the peak production year for the coal is anticipated to be in the year 2080 with an estimated production of 134.06 million. Based on the results of this study, which provide a greater understanding of future energy patterns, it is recommended that an energy security policy be devised for the country to ensure sustained supplies in the future.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1858coalenergy securityHubbert peaksnatural gasPakistanprimary energy
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Syed Aziz Ur Rehman
Yanpeng Cai
Nayyar Hussain Mirjat
Gordhan Das Walasai
Izaz Ali Shah
Sharafat Ali
spellingShingle Syed Aziz Ur Rehman
Yanpeng Cai
Nayyar Hussain Mirjat
Gordhan Das Walasai
Izaz Ali Shah
Sharafat Ali
The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks
Energies
coal
energy security
Hubbert peaks
natural gas
Pakistan
primary energy
author_facet Syed Aziz Ur Rehman
Yanpeng Cai
Nayyar Hussain Mirjat
Gordhan Das Walasai
Izaz Ali Shah
Sharafat Ali
author_sort Syed Aziz Ur Rehman
title The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks
title_short The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks
title_full The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks
title_fullStr The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks
title_full_unstemmed The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks
title_sort future of sustainable energy production in pakistan: a system dynamics-based approach for estimating hubbert peaks
publisher MDPI AG
series Energies
issn 1996-1073
publishDate 2017-11-01
description This paper presents an effort pertaining to the simulation of the future production in Pakistan of different primary energy resources, i.e., coal, natural gas and crude oil, thereby constructing Hubbert peaks. In this context, the past 45 years’ production data of primary energy resources of Pakistan have been analyzed and simulated using a generic STELLA (Systems Thinking, Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation) model. The results show that the Hubbert peak of Pakistan’s crude oil production has been somehow already achieved in 2013, with the highest production of 4.52 million toe, which is 1.51 times the production in 2000. Similarly, the natural gas peak production is expected in 2024 with a production of 32.70 million toe which shall be 1.96-fold the extraction of the resource in the year 2000. On the other hand, the coal production in the country has been historically very low and with a constant production rate that is gradually picking up, the peak production year for the coal is anticipated to be in the year 2080 with an estimated production of 134.06 million. Based on the results of this study, which provide a greater understanding of future energy patterns, it is recommended that an energy security policy be devised for the country to ensure sustained supplies in the future.
topic coal
energy security
Hubbert peaks
natural gas
Pakistan
primary energy
url https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1858
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