Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam
This paper examines the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in Vietnam between 1977 and 2019. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find an inverted N-shaped relation between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in both the long- and short-run. The econometric results al...
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doaj-ef84c92139fd4990ad124b4dce9c8d0a2021-06-01T01:24:21ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732021-05-01143144314410.3390/en14113144Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of VietnamAnh-Tu Nguyen0Shih-Hao Lu1Phuc Thanh Thien Nguyen2Department of Business Administration, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 106, TaiwanDepartment of Business Administration, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 106, TaiwanDepartment of Computer Science, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei 106, TaiwanThis paper examines the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in Vietnam between 1977 and 2019. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find an inverted N-shaped relation between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in both the long- and short-run. The econometric results also reveal that energy consumption and urbanization statistically positively impact pollution. The long-run Granger causality test shows a unidirectional causality from energy consumption and economic growth to pollution while there is no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. These suggest some crucial policies for curtailing emissions without harming economic development. In the second step, we also employed the back-propagation neural networks (BPN) to compare the work of econometrics in carbon dioxide emissions forecasting. A 5-4-1 multi-layer perceptron with BPN and learning rate was set at 0.1, which outperforms the ARDL’s outputs. Our findings suggest the potential application of machine learning to notably improve the econometric method’s forecasting results in the literature.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/11/3144backpropagation neural networkenergy consumptionenvironmental Kuznets curvepollutionurbanizationVietnam |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Anh-Tu Nguyen Shih-Hao Lu Phuc Thanh Thien Nguyen |
spellingShingle |
Anh-Tu Nguyen Shih-Hao Lu Phuc Thanh Thien Nguyen Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam Energies backpropagation neural network energy consumption environmental Kuznets curve pollution urbanization Vietnam |
author_facet |
Anh-Tu Nguyen Shih-Hao Lu Phuc Thanh Thien Nguyen |
author_sort |
Anh-Tu Nguyen |
title |
Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam |
title_short |
Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam |
title_full |
Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam |
title_fullStr |
Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam |
title_full_unstemmed |
Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam |
title_sort |
validating and forecasting carbon emissions in the framework of the environmental kuznets curve: the case of vietnam |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Energies |
issn |
1996-1073 |
publishDate |
2021-05-01 |
description |
This paper examines the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in Vietnam between 1977 and 2019. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find an inverted N-shaped relation between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in both the long- and short-run. The econometric results also reveal that energy consumption and urbanization statistically positively impact pollution. The long-run Granger causality test shows a unidirectional causality from energy consumption and economic growth to pollution while there is no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. These suggest some crucial policies for curtailing emissions without harming economic development. In the second step, we also employed the back-propagation neural networks (BPN) to compare the work of econometrics in carbon dioxide emissions forecasting. A 5-4-1 multi-layer perceptron with BPN and learning rate was set at 0.1, which outperforms the ARDL’s outputs. Our findings suggest the potential application of machine learning to notably improve the econometric method’s forecasting results in the literature. |
topic |
backpropagation neural network energy consumption environmental Kuznets curve pollution urbanization Vietnam |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/11/3144 |
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