A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method

A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method

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Dengue fever is an acute disease that clinically can cause death because there is no prediction system to estimate dengue fever cases so it resulted in the growing of dengue fever cases every year. Original data gathering in Jember area that uses technique of partial data gathering has caused data m...

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Main Authors: Mochammad Choirur Roziqin, Achmad Basuki, Tri Harsono
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya 2016-08-01
Series:Emitter: International Journal of Engineering Technology
Online Access:http://emitter2.pens.ac.id/ojs/index.php/emitter/article/view/111
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spelling doaj-f1877568f9514a1eb79ef1d8103625252021-02-09T08:51:35ZengPoliteknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya Emitter: International Journal of Engineering Technology2355-391X2443-11682016-08-014110.24003/emitter.v4i1.111A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo MethodMochammad Choirur Roziqin0Achmad Basuki1Tri Harsono2Politeknik Elektronika Negeri SurabayaPoliteknik Elektronika Negeri SurabayaPoliteknik Elektronika Negeri SurabayaDengue fever is an acute disease that clinically can cause death because there is no prediction system to estimate dengue fever cases so it resulted in the growing of dengue fever cases every year. Original data gathering in Jember area that uses technique of partial data gathering has caused data missing. To make this secondary data can be processed in prediction stage there is need to conduct missing imputation by using Monte Carlo method with four different randomization method, followed by data normality test with chi-square, then continued to regression stage. We use MSE (Mean Square Error) to measure prediction error. The smallest MSE result of regression is the best regression model for prediction.http://emitter2.pens.ac.id/ojs/index.php/emitter/article/view/111
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Mochammad Choirur Roziqin
Achmad Basuki
Tri Harsono
spellingShingle Mochammad Choirur Roziqin
Achmad Basuki
Tri Harsono
A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method
Emitter: International Journal of Engineering Technology
author_facet Mochammad Choirur Roziqin
Achmad Basuki
Tri Harsono
author_sort Mochammad Choirur Roziqin
title A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method
title_short A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method
title_full A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method
title_fullStr A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method
title_full_unstemmed A Prediction System of Dengue Fever Using Monte Carlo Method
title_sort prediction system of dengue fever using monte carlo method
publisher Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya
series Emitter: International Journal of Engineering Technology
issn 2355-391X
2443-1168
publishDate 2016-08-01
description Dengue fever is an acute disease that clinically can cause death because there is no prediction system to estimate dengue fever cases so it resulted in the growing of dengue fever cases every year. Original data gathering in Jember area that uses technique of partial data gathering has caused data missing. To make this secondary data can be processed in prediction stage there is need to conduct missing imputation by using Monte Carlo method with four different randomization method, followed by data normality test with chi-square, then continued to regression stage. We use MSE (Mean Square Error) to measure prediction error. The smallest MSE result of regression is the best regression model for prediction.
url http://emitter2.pens.ac.id/ojs/index.php/emitter/article/view/111
work_keys_str_mv AT mochammadchoirurroziqin apredictionsystemofdenguefeverusingmontecarlomethod
AT achmadbasuki apredictionsystemofdenguefeverusingmontecarlomethod
AT triharsono apredictionsystemofdenguefeverusingmontecarlomethod
AT mochammadchoirurroziqin predictionsystemofdenguefeverusingmontecarlomethod
AT achmadbasuki predictionsystemofdenguefeverusingmontecarlomethod
AT triharsono predictionsystemofdenguefeverusingmontecarlomethod
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