Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce
Scenarios modelling offers to forest management an option how to envision complex future associated with various natural, social, or economic uncertainties. The challenge is what modelling method to choose as many methodological approaches to scenario building exists. Morphological analysis is a bas...
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doaj-f33f5c56583e4ed3aef78a09c31dfbdd2021-09-05T21:01:02ZcesSciendoLesnícky Časopis0323-10462019-06-0165210312010.2478/forj-2019-0009forj-2019-0009Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and KysuceNavrátil Rudolf0Brodrechtová Yvonne1Sedmák Róbert2Tuček Ján3Technical University in Zvolen, Faculty of Forestry, T. G. Masaryka 24, SK – 960 53Zvolen, Slovak RepublicTechnical University in Zvolen, Faculty of Forestry, T. G. Masaryka 24, SK – 960 53Zvolen, Slovak RepublicTechnical University in Zvolen, Faculty of Forestry, T. G. Masaryka 24, SK – 960 53Zvolen, Slovak RepublicTechnical University in Zvolen, Faculty of Forestry, T. G. Masaryka 24, SK – 960 53Zvolen, Slovak RepublicScenarios modelling offers to forest management an option how to envision complex future associated with various natural, social, or economic uncertainties. The challenge is what modelling method to choose as many methodological approaches to scenario building exists. Morphological analysis is a basic modelling method for structuring and analysing a whole set of relationships existing in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, and complex topics. Especially, its application is relevant when abstract policy or market-driven challenges need to be investigated. In this study, we demonstrated the usefulness of the morphological analysis with an example case taken from forest management in Slovakia. The use of the method has enabled, from a number of uncertain futures, to identify three possible, plausible and consistent future scenarios of possible forest management direction in the regions of Podpoľanie and Kysuce. Additionally, the future scenario modelling as prognostic method of qualitative research supported by quantitative models or forestry DSS could introduce participation and more dimensions into forest management modelling. Thus, the future scenarios modelling offers new methodological possibilities to how to deal with increasing uncertainties associated with increasing demands for various ecosystem services or negative impacts of climate change, that forest management in Slovakia will face in the near future.https://doi.org/10.2478/forj-2019-0009forest managementfuture variationscoherence of scenariosconsistency matrixcluster map |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
ces |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Navrátil Rudolf Brodrechtová Yvonne Sedmák Róbert Tuček Ján |
spellingShingle |
Navrátil Rudolf Brodrechtová Yvonne Sedmák Róbert Tuček Ján Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce Lesnícky Časopis forest management future variations coherence of scenarios consistency matrix cluster map |
author_facet |
Navrátil Rudolf Brodrechtová Yvonne Sedmák Róbert Tuček Ján |
author_sort |
Navrátil Rudolf |
title |
Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce |
title_short |
Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce |
title_full |
Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce |
title_fullStr |
Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce |
title_sort |
forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from podpoľanie and kysuce |
publisher |
Sciendo |
series |
Lesnícky Časopis |
issn |
0323-1046 |
publishDate |
2019-06-01 |
description |
Scenarios modelling offers to forest management an option how to envision complex future associated with various natural, social, or economic uncertainties. The challenge is what modelling method to choose as many methodological approaches to scenario building exists. Morphological analysis is a basic modelling method for structuring and analysing a whole set of relationships existing in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, and complex topics. Especially, its application is relevant when abstract policy or market-driven challenges need to be investigated. In this study, we demonstrated the usefulness of the morphological analysis with an example case taken from forest management in Slovakia. The use of the method has enabled, from a number of uncertain futures, to identify three possible, plausible and consistent future scenarios of possible forest management direction in the regions of Podpoľanie and Kysuce. Additionally, the future scenario modelling as prognostic method of qualitative research supported by quantitative models or forestry DSS could introduce participation and more dimensions into forest management modelling. Thus, the future scenarios modelling offers new methodological possibilities to how to deal with increasing uncertainties associated with increasing demands for various ecosystem services or negative impacts of climate change, that forest management in Slovakia will face in the near future. |
topic |
forest management future variations coherence of scenarios consistency matrix cluster map |
url |
https://doi.org/10.2478/forj-2019-0009 |
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AT navratilrudolf forestmanagementscenariosmodellingwithmorphologicalanalysisexamplestakenfrompodpolanieandkysuce AT brodrechtovayvonne forestmanagementscenariosmodellingwithmorphologicalanalysisexamplestakenfrompodpolanieandkysuce AT sedmakrobert forestmanagementscenariosmodellingwithmorphologicalanalysisexamplestakenfrompodpolanieandkysuce AT tucekjan forestmanagementscenariosmodellingwithmorphologicalanalysisexamplestakenfrompodpolanieandkysuce |
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