Analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia

• Main Authors: Račić Željko, Barjaktarović Lidija
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Association of Serbian Banks 2016-01-01
• Series: Bankarstvo
• Subjects: banking sector of the Republic of Serbia; empirical determinants; credit risk; linear regression model
• Online Access: http://scindeks-clanci.ceon.rs/data/pdf/1451-4354/2016/1451-43541604094R.pdf

The aim of this paper is the detection and analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia. The paper is based on an analysis of results of the application of the linear regression model, during the period from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2014. There are three main findings. Firstly, the higher lending activity of banks contributes to the increasing share of high-risk loans in the total withdrawn loans (delayed effect of 3 years). Secondly, the growth of loans as opposed to deposits contributes to the increased exposure of banks to credit risk. Thirdly, the factors that reduce the exposure of banks to credit risk increase profitability, growth of interest rate spread and real GDP growth. Bearing in mind the overall market conditions and dynamics of the economic recovery of the country, there is a general conclusion based on the results that in the coming period the question of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Republic of Serbia will present a challenge for both lenders and borrowers.