Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques
Forecasting the foreign currency exchange is a challenging task since it is influenced by political, economic and psychological factors. This paper focuses on the forecasting Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) using Exponential Smoothing Techniques which are...
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Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Perlis
2021-09-01
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doaj-f6606adb97c64c95a3db0865cb8f1bcf2021-09-08T21:09:55ZengFaculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA PerlisJournal of Computing Research and Innovation2600-87932021-09-016211010.24191/jcrinn.v6i2.183183Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing TechniquesNoreha Mohamed Yusof0Norani Amit1Nor Faradilah Mahad2Noorezatty Mohd Yusop3Center of Statistical and Decision Science Studies, Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Negeri SembilanCenter of Statistical and Decision Science Studies, Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Negeri SembilanCenter of Mathematical Studies, Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Negeri SembilanCenter of Statistical and Decision Science Studies, Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Negeri SembilanForecasting the foreign currency exchange is a challenging task since it is influenced by political, economic and psychological factors. This paper focuses on the forecasting Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) using Exponential Smoothing Techniques which are Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Holt’s method. The objectives of this paper are to identify the best Exponential Smoothing Technique that describes MYR for 5 years period and to forecast MYR 12 months ahead by using the best Exponential Smoothing Technique. The comparison between these techniques is also made and the best one will be selected to forecast the MYR exchange rate against USD. The result showed that Holt’s method has the smallest value of error measure which depending on the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the evaluation part. The MSE is 1.43915x10-14 and MAPE is 2.5413 x 10-6. Meanwhile, the forecast value of MYR in August 2019 is RM 4.30226.https://crinn.conferencehunter.com/index.php/jcrinn/article/view/183exponential smoothingforecastingunivariate model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Noreha Mohamed Yusof Norani Amit Nor Faradilah Mahad Noorezatty Mohd Yusop |
spellingShingle |
Noreha Mohamed Yusof Norani Amit Nor Faradilah Mahad Noorezatty Mohd Yusop Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques Journal of Computing Research and Innovation exponential smoothing forecasting univariate model |
author_facet |
Noreha Mohamed Yusof Norani Amit Nor Faradilah Mahad Noorezatty Mohd Yusop |
author_sort |
Noreha Mohamed Yusof |
title |
Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques |
title_short |
Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques |
title_full |
Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques |
title_sort |
forecasting malaysian ringgit using exponential smoothing techniques |
publisher |
Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Perlis |
series |
Journal of Computing Research and Innovation |
issn |
2600-8793 |
publishDate |
2021-09-01 |
description |
Forecasting the foreign currency exchange is a challenging task since it is influenced by political, economic and psychological factors. This paper focuses on the forecasting Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) using Exponential Smoothing Techniques which are Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Holt’s method. The objectives of this paper are to identify the best Exponential Smoothing Technique that describes MYR for 5 years period and to forecast MYR 12 months ahead by using the best Exponential Smoothing Technique. The comparison between these techniques is also made and the best one will be selected to forecast the MYR exchange rate against USD. The result showed that Holt’s method has the smallest value of error measure which depending on the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the evaluation part. The MSE is 1.43915x10-14 and MAPE is 2.5413 x 10-6. Meanwhile, the forecast value of MYR in August 2019 is RM 4.30226. |
topic |
exponential smoothing forecasting univariate model |
url |
https://crinn.conferencehunter.com/index.php/jcrinn/article/view/183 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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