An Exploratory Study of Geospace Perturbations Using Financial Analysis Tools in the Context of Complex Systems
In the frame of complex systems research, methods used to quantitatively analyze specific dynamic phenomena are often used to analyze phenomena from other disciplines on the grounds that are governed by similar dynamics. Technical analysis is considered the oldest, currently omnipresent, method for...
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doaj-f806a67c66bc43ef9be90ec70749ba6c2021-06-30T23:03:22ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632021-06-011123923910.3390/geosciences11060239An Exploratory Study of Geospace Perturbations Using Financial Analysis Tools in the Context of Complex SystemsPavlos I. Zitis0Stelios M. Potirakis1Georgios Balasis2Konstantinos Eftaxias3Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, University of West Attica, 250 Thivon and P. Ralli, Aigaleo, GR-12244 Athens, GreeceDepartment of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Ancient Olive Grove Campus, University of West Attica, 250 Thivon and P. Ralli, Aigaleo, GR-12244 Athens, GreeceInstitute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, Metaxa and Vasileos Pavlou, Penteli, GR-15236 Athens, GreeceDepartment of Physics, Section of Solid State Physics, University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, GR-15784 Athens, GreeceIn the frame of complex systems research, methods used to quantitatively analyze specific dynamic phenomena are often used to analyze phenomena from other disciplines on the grounds that are governed by similar dynamics. Technical analysis is considered the oldest, currently omnipresent, method for financial markets analysis, which uses past prices aiming at the possible short-term forecast of future prices. This work is the first attempt to explore the applicability of technical analysis tools on disturbance storm time (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>D</mi><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) index time series, aiming at the identification of similar features between the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>D</mi><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> time series during magnetic storms (MSs) and asset price time series. We employ the following financial analysis tools: simple moving average (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>S</mi><mi>M</mi><mi>A</mi></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>), Bollinger bands, and relative strength index (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>R</mi><mi>S</mi><mi>I</mi></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>), formulating an analysis approach based on various features, appearing in financial time series during high volatility periods, that could be found during the different phases of the evolution of an MS (onset, main development, and recovery phase), focusing on the temporal sequence they occur. The applicability of the proposed analysis approach is examined on several MS events and the results reveal similar behavior with the financial time series in high volatility periods. We postulate that these specialized data analysis methods could be combined in the future with other statistical and complex systems time series analysis methods in order to form a useful toolbox for the study of geospace perturbations related to natural hazards.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/6/239natural hazardscomplex systemsmagnetospheremagnetic storms<i>D<sub>st</sub></i>technical analysis |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Pavlos I. Zitis Stelios M. Potirakis Georgios Balasis Konstantinos Eftaxias |
spellingShingle |
Pavlos I. Zitis Stelios M. Potirakis Georgios Balasis Konstantinos Eftaxias An Exploratory Study of Geospace Perturbations Using Financial Analysis Tools in the Context of Complex Systems Geosciences natural hazards complex systems magnetosphere magnetic storms <i>D<sub>st</sub></i> technical analysis |
author_facet |
Pavlos I. Zitis Stelios M. Potirakis Georgios Balasis Konstantinos Eftaxias |
author_sort |
Pavlos I. Zitis |
title |
An Exploratory Study of Geospace Perturbations Using Financial Analysis Tools in the Context of Complex Systems |
title_short |
An Exploratory Study of Geospace Perturbations Using Financial Analysis Tools in the Context of Complex Systems |
title_full |
An Exploratory Study of Geospace Perturbations Using Financial Analysis Tools in the Context of Complex Systems |
title_fullStr |
An Exploratory Study of Geospace Perturbations Using Financial Analysis Tools in the Context of Complex Systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
An Exploratory Study of Geospace Perturbations Using Financial Analysis Tools in the Context of Complex Systems |
title_sort |
exploratory study of geospace perturbations using financial analysis tools in the context of complex systems |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Geosciences |
issn |
2076-3263 |
publishDate |
2021-06-01 |
description |
In the frame of complex systems research, methods used to quantitatively analyze specific dynamic phenomena are often used to analyze phenomena from other disciplines on the grounds that are governed by similar dynamics. Technical analysis is considered the oldest, currently omnipresent, method for financial markets analysis, which uses past prices aiming at the possible short-term forecast of future prices. This work is the first attempt to explore the applicability of technical analysis tools on disturbance storm time (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>D</mi><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) index time series, aiming at the identification of similar features between the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>D</mi><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> time series during magnetic storms (MSs) and asset price time series. We employ the following financial analysis tools: simple moving average (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>S</mi><mi>M</mi><mi>A</mi></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>), Bollinger bands, and relative strength index (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>R</mi><mi>S</mi><mi>I</mi></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>), formulating an analysis approach based on various features, appearing in financial time series during high volatility periods, that could be found during the different phases of the evolution of an MS (onset, main development, and recovery phase), focusing on the temporal sequence they occur. The applicability of the proposed analysis approach is examined on several MS events and the results reveal similar behavior with the financial time series in high volatility periods. We postulate that these specialized data analysis methods could be combined in the future with other statistical and complex systems time series analysis methods in order to form a useful toolbox for the study of geospace perturbations related to natural hazards. |
topic |
natural hazards complex systems magnetosphere magnetic storms <i>D<sub>st</sub></i> technical analysis |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/6/239 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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