Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China
Abstract Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the d...
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doaj-f882600bb2ff49e0b039b9de4449c98e2021-01-17T12:41:54ZengNature Publishing GroupScientific Reports2045-23222021-01-011111910.1038/s41598-020-80201-8Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in ChinaJunwen Tao0Yue Ma1Caiying Luo2Jiaqi Huang3Tao Zhang4Fei Yin5West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityWest China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityWest China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityWest China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityWest China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityWest China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan UniversityAbstract Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the development of COVID-19 before and after the emergency response took effect. We found that the number of confirmed cases peaked 9–14 days after the first detection of an imported case, but there was a peak lag in the province where the outbreak was concentrated. Results of the growth curves indicated that the fitted cumulative confirmed cases were close to the actual observed cases, and the R 2 of all models was above 0.95. The average growth rate decreased by 44.42% nationally and by 32.5% outside Hubei Province. The average growth rate in the 12 high-risk areas decreased by 29.9%. The average growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases decreased by approximately 50% after the emergency response. Areas with frequent population migration have a high risk of outbreak. The emergency response taken by the Chinese government was able to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study provides references for other countries and regions to control the COVID-19 outbreak.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80201-8 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Junwen Tao Yue Ma Caiying Luo Jiaqi Huang Tao Zhang Fei Yin |
spellingShingle |
Junwen Tao Yue Ma Caiying Luo Jiaqi Huang Tao Zhang Fei Yin Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China Scientific Reports |
author_facet |
Junwen Tao Yue Ma Caiying Luo Jiaqi Huang Tao Zhang Fei Yin |
author_sort |
Junwen Tao |
title |
Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China |
title_short |
Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China |
title_full |
Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China |
title_fullStr |
Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China |
title_sort |
summary of the covid-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in china |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
series |
Scientific Reports |
issn |
2045-2322 |
publishDate |
2021-01-01 |
description |
Abstract Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the development of COVID-19 before and after the emergency response took effect. We found that the number of confirmed cases peaked 9–14 days after the first detection of an imported case, but there was a peak lag in the province where the outbreak was concentrated. Results of the growth curves indicated that the fitted cumulative confirmed cases were close to the actual observed cases, and the R 2 of all models was above 0.95. The average growth rate decreased by 44.42% nationally and by 32.5% outside Hubei Province. The average growth rate in the 12 high-risk areas decreased by 29.9%. The average growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases decreased by approximately 50% after the emergency response. Areas with frequent population migration have a high risk of outbreak. The emergency response taken by the Chinese government was able to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study provides references for other countries and regions to control the COVID-19 outbreak. |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80201-8 |
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