Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study
Objectives The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Ira...
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Korean Society for Preventive Medicine
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doaj-f97990be19cf4d6db879ab60bc1ded5d2020-11-24T22:19:05ZengKorean Society for Preventive MedicineJournal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health1975-83752233-45212017-03-01502839010.3961/jpmph.16.0851903Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling StudyFatemeh Khosravi Shadmani0Kamyar Mansori1Manoochehr Karami2Farid Zayeri3Reza Khosravi Shadman4Shiva Mansouri Hanis5Hamid Soori6 Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran School of Public Health, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranObjectives The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. Results The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. Conclusions On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.http://www.jpmph.org/upload/pdf/jpmph-50-2-83.pdfTraffic accidentsRisk factorsPrevalenceHumanIran |
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DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani Kamyar Mansori Manoochehr Karami Farid Zayeri Reza Khosravi Shadman Shiva Mansouri Hanis Hamid Soori |
spellingShingle |
Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani Kamyar Mansori Manoochehr Karami Farid Zayeri Reza Khosravi Shadman Shiva Mansouri Hanis Hamid Soori Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Traffic accidents Risk factors Prevalence Human Iran |
author_facet |
Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani Kamyar Mansori Manoochehr Karami Farid Zayeri Reza Khosravi Shadman Shiva Mansouri Hanis Hamid Soori |
author_sort |
Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani |
title |
Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study |
title_short |
Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study |
title_full |
Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study |
title_fullStr |
Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study |
title_sort |
avoidable burden of risk factors for serious road traffic crashes in iran: a modeling study |
publisher |
Korean Society for Preventive Medicine |
series |
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health |
issn |
1975-8375 2233-4521 |
publishDate |
2017-03-01 |
description |
Objectives The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. Results The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. Conclusions On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously. |
topic |
Traffic accidents Risk factors Prevalence Human Iran |
url |
http://www.jpmph.org/upload/pdf/jpmph-50-2-83.pdf |
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