Nowcasting commodity prices using social media
Gathering up-to-date information on food prices is critical in developing regions, as it allows policymakers and development practitioners to rely on accurate data on food security. This study explores the feasibility of utilizing social media as a new data source for predicting food security landsc...
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doaj-faeba70ba0a34f448531476c00c133b72020-11-25T01:40:45ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ Computer Science2376-59922017-07-013e12610.7717/peerj-cs.126Nowcasting commodity prices using social mediaJaewoo Kim0Meeyoung Cha1Jong Gun Lee2Graduate School of Culture Technology, Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology, Daejeon, South KoreaGraduate School of Culture Technology, Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology, Daejeon, South KoreaUnited Nations Global PulseGathering up-to-date information on food prices is critical in developing regions, as it allows policymakers and development practitioners to rely on accurate data on food security. This study explores the feasibility of utilizing social media as a new data source for predicting food security landscape in developing countries. Through a case study of Indonesia, we developed a nowcast model that monitors mentions of food prices on Twitter and forecasts daily price fluctuations of four major food commodities: beef, chicken, onion, and chilli. A longitudinal test over 15 months of data demonstrates that not only that the proposed model accurately predicts food prices, but it is also resilient to data scarcity. The high accuracy of the nowcast model is attributed to the observed trend that the volume of tweets mentioning food prices tends to increase on days when food prices change sharply. We discuss factors that affect the veracity of price quotations such as social network-wide sensitivity and user influence.https://peerj.com/articles/cs-126.pdfNowcastPrice predictionFood securitySocial mediaPrice monitoringReal-time |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Jaewoo Kim Meeyoung Cha Jong Gun Lee |
spellingShingle |
Jaewoo Kim Meeyoung Cha Jong Gun Lee Nowcasting commodity prices using social media PeerJ Computer Science Nowcast Price prediction Food security Social media Price monitoring Real-time |
author_facet |
Jaewoo Kim Meeyoung Cha Jong Gun Lee |
author_sort |
Jaewoo Kim |
title |
Nowcasting commodity prices using social media |
title_short |
Nowcasting commodity prices using social media |
title_full |
Nowcasting commodity prices using social media |
title_fullStr |
Nowcasting commodity prices using social media |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nowcasting commodity prices using social media |
title_sort |
nowcasting commodity prices using social media |
publisher |
PeerJ Inc. |
series |
PeerJ Computer Science |
issn |
2376-5992 |
publishDate |
2017-07-01 |
description |
Gathering up-to-date information on food prices is critical in developing regions, as it allows policymakers and development practitioners to rely on accurate data on food security. This study explores the feasibility of utilizing social media as a new data source for predicting food security landscape in developing countries. Through a case study of Indonesia, we developed a nowcast model that monitors mentions of food prices on Twitter and forecasts daily price fluctuations of four major food commodities: beef, chicken, onion, and chilli. A longitudinal test over 15 months of data demonstrates that not only that the proposed model accurately predicts food prices, but it is also resilient to data scarcity. The high accuracy of the nowcast model is attributed to the observed trend that the volume of tweets mentioning food prices tends to increase on days when food prices change sharply. We discuss factors that affect the veracity of price quotations such as social network-wide sensitivity and user influence. |
topic |
Nowcast Price prediction Food security Social media Price monitoring Real-time |
url |
https://peerj.com/articles/cs-126.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT jaewookim nowcastingcommoditypricesusingsocialmedia AT meeyoungcha nowcastingcommoditypricesusingsocialmedia AT jonggunlee nowcastingcommoditypricesusingsocialmedia |
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