| Summary: | As the coupling and integration of multi-energy flow in the integrated energy system (IES) deepen increasingly, the cascading failure will develop across different energy systems more easily and widely through the energy hub (EH). And it brings great challenges to the security and reliability of IES. The defects of the present cascading failure model of IES have been summarized, and a novel search strategy of fault chains in IES combined heating and power network was proposed in this paper. First, the initial risk assessment index of each energy branch is proposed to form the initial fault sets. Then, combined heat and power control (CHPC) strategies are introduced to deal with the branch overload conditions during the cascading failure. What is more, in order to reduce the workload and overcome the limitation of present methods, we analyzed the relevance of the branches to be predicted by using the kernel fuzzy C-means (KFCM) clustering algorithm and select the branches with the highest value of relevance as the subsequent failure. Based on the predicted fault chain, vulnerability analysis is presented to locate critical component and find out the correlation between cascading outages. The comprehensive evaluation index is also established to effectively evaluate the impact severity of cascading failure. Finally, the case studies are carried out on the combined heating and power systems to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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