| Summary: | This article aims to propose a methodological framework to determine the degree of the dynamic impact of the effect of activities in the field of sustainable waste logistics on the development of trade in recyclable raw materials in the chosen countries of the European Union, especially in Poland and Hungary. In order to determine the dynamic interdependence between the indicated phenomena, econometric tools associated with the vector autoregression model were used, namely: Granger causality tests, impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecast errors. The tools used will not only identify the direction of the causal interdependence between the effects of sustainable logistics activities and the development of trade in recyclable raw materials, but also allow to determine the strength of the interaction between these variables. The conducted research shows that changes in the environmental effects of waste logistics activities are the Granger cause of changes occurring in the trade of renewable raw materials, especially in Hungary. Considering adequately delayed values of the synthetic development measure of the environmental effects of waste logistics increases the accuracy of predictions for changes in the trade of recyclable raw materials.
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